by Summary:
So how do you make good predictions? I met “superforecaster” Michael Story, who was ranked 18th best among the 20,000 people who formed the Good Judgment team. The team took part in a competition conducted by the US intelligence community to find the world’s best forecasters. Launched in 2011, the four-year contest required the group to provide forecasts on 500 questions ranging from the future for oil prices to the financial outlook. The Good Judgment team won the tournament, reportedly outperforming even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. The grading of their volunteers’ forecasting abilities was key to why Good Judgment did so well. People knew how well they were performing and were driven to improve. They were also encouraged to correct their biases
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important: economic modeling, economics profession, forecasting, scientific method
This could be interesting, too:
So how do you make good predictions? I met “superforecaster” Michael Story, who was ranked 18th best among the 20,000 people who formed the Good Judgment team. The team took part in a competition conducted by the US intelligence community to find the world’s best forecasters. Launched in 2011, the four-year contest required the group to provide forecasts on 500 questions ranging from the future for oil prices to the financial outlook. The Good Judgment team won the tournament, reportedly outperforming even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. The grading of their volunteers’ forecasting abilities was key to why Good Judgment did so well. People knew how well they were performing and were driven to improve. They were also encouraged to correct their biases
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important: economic modeling, economics profession, forecasting, scientific method
This could be interesting, too:
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So how do you make good predictions? I met “superforecaster” Michael Story, who was ranked 18th best among the 20,000 people who formed the Good Judgment team. The team took part in a competition conducted by the US intelligence community to find the world’s best forecasters. Launched in 2011, the four-year contest required the group to provide forecasts on 500 questions ranging from the future for oil prices to the financial outlook. The Good Judgment team won the tournament, reportedly outperforming even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data.
The grading of their volunteers’ forecasting abilities was key to why Good Judgment did so well. People knew how well they were performing and were driven to improve. They were also encouraged to correct their biases and alter their world view amid changing circumstances. This self-analysis and willingness to adapt, they believe, was crucial to the team’s success.…Conclusion.
The Good Judgment team believes part of the problem is that we misunderstand the science of forecasting and look to the wrong people for predictions. If we want to know what’s happening to the economy, we think the obvious thing to do is ask an economist. But Storey says that may be the wrong approach. Forecasting is an art that is separate from the need to have specific subject knowledge. The people who were best at predicting the Arab spring, he said, were not Middle East experts. They were people who studied eastern Europe and had seen similar patterns develop there. We don’t need subject experts, we need people who are great at forecasting anything.
Adam Shaw