Tag Archives: Economics

Why economists can’t forecast The problem of evaluating models built for forecasting is that one cannot get around invariance. There must be a stable bridge that connects the past and pres. ent with the future … To evaluate invariance its domain should be considered. In other words, one has to investigate what the list of all relevant non-negligible potential influences is. To ensure invariance, this list should be complete. This latter point was also...

Sraffian economics — an unhappy trade-off between rigour and relevance We have continually noted the tendency of Sraffians to subordinate the study of the substantive nature of economic phenomena to the requirements of logical rigor, and for Sraffians rigor equals GET (General Equilibrium Theory), the simultaneous determination of endogenous economic variables. The marriage of Sraffian economics and GET is not a promising avenue for studying past thinkers,...

The deficit lies mainstream economists knowingly tell us .[embedded content] [The interview was given to Mark Blaug in 1995. In transcript: “I think there is an element of truth in the view that the superstition that the budget must be balanced at all times [is necessary]. Once it is debunked, [it] takes away one of the bulwarks that every society must have against expenditure out of control. There must be discipline in the allocation of resources or you...

The tractability hoax in modern economics While the paternity of the theoretical apparatus underlying the new neoclassical synthesis in macro is contested, there is wide agreement that the methodological framework was largely architected by Robert Lucas … Bringing a representative agent meant foregoing the possibility to tackle inequality, redistribution and justice concerns. Was it deliberate? How much does this choice owe to tractability? What...

La teoría de juegos — una nota al pie en la historia de las ciencias sociales Siendo en su corazón una subdisciplina dentro de las matemáticas puras, los teóricos de juegos no están demasiado preocupados por si la teoría de los juegos representa fenómenos del mundo real. Bien. Pero como la mayoría de los científicos sociales tienen una opinión diferente, los teóricos de juegos también deben aceptar que, para la mayoría de los científicos sociales, la teoría...

Non-ergodic economics, expected utility theory and the Kelly criterion (wonkish) Suppose I want to play a game. Let’s say we are tossing a coin. If heads come up, I win a dollar, and if tails come up, I lose a dollar. Suppose further that I believe I know that the coin is asymmetrical and that the probability of getting heads (p) is greater than 50% — say 60% (0.6) — while the bookmaker assumes that the coin is totally symmetric. How much of my bankroll...

For a good many years, Tony Lawson has been urging economists to pay attention to their ontological presuppositions. Economists have not paid much attention, perhaps because few of us know what “ontology” means. This branch of philosophy stresses the need to “grasp the nature of the reality” that is the object of study – and to adapt one’s methods of inquiry to it. Economics, it might be argued, has gotten this backwards. We have imposed our pre-conceived methods on economic...

The dangers of using ontologically ungrounded idealizations Using ‘simplifying’ tractability or ‘heuristic’ assumptions — rational expectations, common knowledge, representative agents, linearity, additivity, ergodicity, etc — because otherwise they cannot ‘manipulate’ their models or come up with ‘rigorous ‘ and ‘precise’ predictions and explanations, does not exempt economists from having to justify their modelling choices. Being able to ‘manipulate’...

Central fallacies of modern economics To criticise/oppose the current mathematical modelling emphasis is to adopt an antiscience stance. It is not. Mathematics is not essential (or inessential) to science; science involves using tools that are appropriate to the given task. A science of economics is perfectly feasible, and the current emphasis on mathematical modelling in economics serves, given the nature of social reality, mostly to prevent that...

The systemic failures of economic methodologists I argue that economic methodologists failed the economics profession by not actively pointing out to the economics profession or to the general public that, if an economist’s primary goal was to provide policy advice to society, then the standard methodology being used by applied macroeconomists had serious problems. I see methodologists’ failure as a systemic failure because the reason they did not point out...