The last week has been extraordinary, even by the standards of these extraordinary times. A flurry of Executive Orders from the new President of the United States has thrown the global order into chaos and sparked outrage throughout the world. But he has only done exactly what he said he would do. There is nothing in the Executive Orders signed so far that was not announced during the Presidential campaign, repeatedly and to loud cheers from his many supporters. The President was...
Read More »Some unpleasant trade realities
Well, this is fun. YouGov has asked the public which countries the UK's new trade negotiators (if and when they are recruited) should prioritise in their quest for free trade deals.Unsurprisingly, the US and the EU (considered as a whole trading bloc) came top of the list. But as ever, the devil is in the detail. These charts show the difference between the public's perception of the importance of a country versus its exports and GDP rankings: Now, of course the exports ranking is the...
Read More »Grieving for a lost empire
There has been a huge amount of analysis about the reasons why British people voted to leave the EU. Some of it is very good: some of it less so, saying more about the biases of the writers than it does about the motivations of the British (no, I won't link any of those posts here!). I confess, I have added to the literature myself. I leave it to you to judge into which of these categories my contributions fall.But in all the vast verbiage written on this topic, there appears to be a...
Read More »Now the EU has an Italian Banking Crisis
This has been brewing for some time and the full effects of it are unclear, but see here:Aoife White, “EU Approves $166 Billion Liquidity Guarantee for Italy Banks,” Bloomberg.com, July 1, 2016.Valentina Pop, Gabriele Steinhauser and Giovanni Legorano, “European Commission Authorized Italian Government to support Banks,” Wall Street Journal, June 30, 2016.The Italian banks reportedly have €360 billion of non-performing loans on their books, and the European Commission – apparently shooting...
Read More »Who is really to blame for Brexit?
Guest post by Tom Streithorst. Brexit already looks a disaster. Sterling has plunged to the lowest level in thirty years, the FTSE fell more than 12% at the open, global equities lost $2 trillion in value in less than a day, and gold, the traditional safe haven in times of turmoil, has shot up. Uncertainly reigns. Firms are less likely than ever to hire or invest. It is going to get worse. Who shall we blame? David Cameron is the obvious villain. He did not need to call this referendum....
Read More »The snake oil sellers
The fallout from Britain’s historic decision to leave the European Union continues. Domestically, there are regrets, recriminations and accusations. Young people,particularly those aged 16-17 who did not have a vote, complain that the vote did not take their interests into account A petition for a second referendum reached over 3m votes in a few days, although it was subsequently found to have been hacked: the true number is uncertain. The media have spent the weekend tracking down...
Read More »Silence
I have reluctantly decided that there will be no more posts on Coppola Comment until after the referendum.Since I have declared my support for Remain, anything I write about the UK and the EU is now inevitably seen as biased, and anything I write about any other subject is - equally inevitably - seen as avoiding the issue. I cannot, for example, write a balanced analysis of the likely effects on financial services of a vote in either direction, though that is my specialism. Nor can I...
Read More »The EU’s greatest achievement
"The EU's greatest achievement is the Euro", said Michael Portillo on the BBC's This Week programme last Thursday.No, Michael, it isn't. It is the EU's worst mistake.As Yanis Varoufakis entertainingly explains in an interesting lecture published in the Australian Journal of Political Economy, the creation of the Euro led inexorably to the buildup of unsustainable debt - both private and public - in the Eurozone periphery countries: The problem is that creating a monetary union is a...
Read More »The Pro-European Union Left is Delusional
I am getting sick of these people. I see them on Facebook and Twitter and their arguments are pathetic.Some of them appear to be living in a quasi-Marxist internationalist fantasy world. The motto of the pro-EU left may as well be: “We want to destroy Europe in order to save it!”The EU and Eurozone are outrageous, catastrophic neoliberal disasters. They have caused tremendous suffering. The EU is a corporate tyranny of unelected and incompetent neoliberal lunatics. They are basically...
Read More »A plan to turn the Euro from zero to hero
Guest post by Ari Andricopoulos It is difficult to read the history of inter-war Europe and the US without feeling a deep sense of foreboding about the future of the Eurozone. What is the Eurozone if not a new gold standard, lacking even the flexibility to readjust the peg? For the war reparations demanded at Versailles, or the war debts owed by France and the UK to the US, we see the huge debts owed by the South of Europe to the North, particularly Germany. The growth model of the...
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