Heterodox
Although there are various attempts to downplay rate expectations as an explanation for bond yields. the reality is that they dominate any other attempt to generate a fair value estimate by using "fundamental data". (Since we cannot hope to explain every last wiggle of bond yields without having a largely content-free model, we need to look at fair value estimates.) The reasoning is rather straightforward: so long as the risk free curve slope is related to the state of the economy, bond...
Read More »Scott Baker, Lorenz Kueng, Leslie McGranahan, Brian T. Melzer — The interaction of household finances and unconventional fiscal policy
The period of low demand and low interest rates during the Great Recession has prompted economists to consider new policies to stabilise the business cycle. The ‘zero lower bound’ on nominal interest rates prevented the use of interest rate reductions to stimulate consumption and investment in many developed economies. Researchers have proposed an alternative policy tool, ‘unconventional’ fiscal policy. This is a commitment to raise consumption taxes in the future (Feldstein 2002, Hall...
Read More »Myles Udland — A major psychological shift is occurring across markets and the economy
Markets and the economy are increasingly being characterized by one word: certainty. This is likely to worry some investors and market watchers who see over-confidence in the future as a sign that things are about to change. On Wednesday, the latest consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan indicated that while overall confidence in the economy is sitting right near a 13-year high, “what has changed recently is the degree of certainty with which consumers hold their...
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