Tag Archives: Forecasts

[unable to retrieve full-text content]An explanation of over-reaction to new data starts with a principal agent model. The idea is that the forecasts are made by agents who are trying to impress people who pay for the forecasts.  Another, and more important, case is that of professional money managers who are investing other people’s money and trying to convince […] The post Over-reaction to new data. What have you done for me lately ? appeared first on Angry Bear.

The key to understanding the COVID-19 recession was in understanding that it was an exogenous shock. This made it quite different from your standard recession in the sense that a boom did not cause the bust. There was no endogenous build up of unsustainable forces that led to the decline in output. COVID was much more akin to a natural disaster. This meant that the recession could be deep and painful, but it was unlikely to last very long. This was crucial to understand (and a key...

I was on the Stansberry Investor Hour last week  with Dan Ferris discussing the markets and the broader macro environment. My segment starts at 29:30. Topics discussed: The general macro environment and why growth could remain sluggish. I was very bullish about bonds 24 months ago at the Stansberry Investment Conference, but that view has changed…. Bond math and why 0% yielding bonds make investing so difficult. FUN! Why I wouldn’t be surprised if markets don’t do much for a few years. Why...