Tag Archives: Forecasts

The key to understanding the COVID-19 recession was in understanding that it was an exogenous shock. This made it quite different from your standard recession in the sense that a boom did not cause the bust. There was no endogenous build up of unsustainable forces that led to the decline in output. COVID was much more akin to a natural disaster. This meant that the recession could be deep and painful, but it was unlikely to last very long. This was crucial to understand (and a key...

I was on the Stansberry Investor Hour last week  with Dan Ferris discussing the markets and the broader macro environment. My segment starts at 29:30. Topics discussed: The general macro environment and why growth could remain sluggish. I was very bullish about bonds 24 months ago at the Stansberry Investment Conference, but that view has changed…. Bond math and why 0% yielding bonds make investing so difficult. FUN! Why I wouldn’t be surprised if markets don’t do much for a few years. Why...