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The author Cullen Roche
Cullen Roche
Former mail delivery boy turned multi-asset investment manager, author, Ironman & chicken farmer. Probably should have stayed with mail delivery....

Cullen Roche: Pragmatic Capitalism

Three Things I Think I Think – Cycles, Hunting Biden and Hacking Life

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) When the boom doesn’t cause the bust. The new Howard Marks missive is typically excellent. Howard cites something that I discussed in my April note about the markets and why this market recovery could end up being much faster than many expect. My working thesis for the last 6 months has been that this decline isn’t a “cycle” resulting from a boom. It’s just an exogenous shock. Said differently, the boom didn’t cause the bust. The bust...

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Government Bond Markets Aren’t “Free” Markets

This is one of those posts that is operational in nature, but will sound political to some people. Before you send me a mean email please try not to politicize the issue.¹ I hope this is helpful.  Here’s a question I got from Twitter: “Cullen, why not let government bond markets be free and not manipulated?” I see this one a lot and it’s based on a misunderstanding of “free markets” and how they relate to the government. So let’s dive in. First, currencies are essentially imposed on us. So...

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Three Things I Think I Think – Muting Trump and Biden

Sorry for the recent radio silence. I’m trying to focus my energy on writing about the markets when it’s pertinent as opposed to just spewing a daily or weekly note for the purpose of generating eyeballs.  1) Hit the mute button. There is going to be a lot of noise in the coming months about who will win the Presidency and why that person is good or bad for the country. As I’ve noted on many occasions, politics is the absolute best way to wreck your portfolio. The objective fact is that...

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The COVID Price Compression in Technology

If I had to summarize my view of the Efficient Market Hypothesis it would be this: Markets tend to be more inefficient in the short-term and more efficient in the long-term. One way of thinking about this is that the information we obtain in the short-term tends to be incomplete. So investors have to make informed guesses about market prices. This makes the short-term prices “wrong” at all times. In my book I talked about one of my favorite ways to think about the inefficiency of markets –...

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* 307 TIP. Cullen Roche on Stocks, Inflation, & COVID-19

Download Stig & Preston's 1 page checklist for finding great stock picks: http://buffettsbooks.com/checklist Subscribe to We Study Billionaires podcast show: https://link.chtbl.com/WSB Have a question? Get your voice heard on the show: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/your-questions/ ABOUT THE EPISODE: On today's show we bring back investment expert Cullen Roche to talk about stock picks during inflationary periods and COVID-19 impacts.

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* 307 TIP. Cullen Roche on Stocks, Inflation, & COVID-19

Download Stig & Preston's 1 page checklist for finding great stock picks: http://buffettsbooks.com/checklist Subscribe to We Study Billionaires podcast show: https://link.chtbl.com/WSB Have a question? Get your voice heard on the show: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/your-questions/ ABOUT THE EPISODE: On today's show we bring back investment expert Cullen Roche to talk about stock picks during inflationary periods and COVID-19 impacts.

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Three Things I Think I Think – Lumbering Along

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Holy lumber, batman! Have you checked out lumber prices lately? Prices have TRIPLED since the March bottom. It’s one of the most interesting economic developments since the pandemic started. Basically, people started staying home and realizing they wanted to remodel the house. Other people started moving out of big cities driving demand for new construction. Young home buyers tried to pounce on the economic weakness. Lumber mills got...

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Three Things I Think I Think – Moar Stuff

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Moar Home Owners? There was a funny (and serious) Tweet going around in recent days. This made me laugh.¹ Homeownership is massively overrated. I used to rent. I miss it all the time. Don’t get me wrong. I love my house. I bought this old beat up house near the beach and I basically drove a bulldozer through it (which was amazing) and then I spent much of the last 3 years building it myself. It’s been fun, educational and truly horrible...

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