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The author Cullen Roche
Cullen Roche
Former mail delivery boy turned multi-asset investment manager, author, Ironman & chicken farmer. Probably should have stayed with mail delivery....

Cullen Roche: Pragmatic Capitalism

Three Things I Think I Think – Myths that Never Die

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) The government is running out of money – NOT. It’s hard to kill old myths. Really hard. I’ve spent countless hours trying to debunk the idea that the US government is “running out of money”. But here we are having another debate about the “debt ceiling” and this fake idea that a government with a literal printing press is somehow going to run out of money because we imposed a fake credit limit on it. I’ve explained the absurdity of the...

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The Zoom Climb Glide Path & Why the Age in Bonds Rule is Wrong

In aeronautics a “zoom climb” is when an aircraft accelerates at a very high rate of speed and then ascends sharply at a very steep rate. It’s often performed with the aircraft moving at a high rate of speed at a low altitude and then shooting higher in a nearly 90 degree angle. I know nothing about aeronautics, but I know some stuff about money and I am going to explain how this concept can be applied to retirement planning and potential future glide paths. I also think this is a useful...

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Three Things I Think I Think – Dangerous & Terrible Stuff

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Are target date funds “terrible”? Here’s Peter Mallouk, CEO of Creative Planning, on Twitter saying that target date funds are “terrible”: I asked him to elaborate: Peter’s a great follow if you use Twitter. Just a super practical thinker and all around good guy. And I think he’s touching on something important here. Personally, I am a huge fan of any investment strategy that I would categorize as a Discipline Based Investing approach....

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It’s Time to Break the Debt Ceiling

Another year, another debt ceiling debate. I think it’s been over 10 years since I first talked about how ridiculous this all is. For those of you who have been paying attention all that time – you know the story. The way this works is simple: Congress establishes a “debt ceiling”, a fake limit on how much national debt we can issue. Then Congress approves legislation that will require new debt in the future. That new legislation causes a breach of the debt ceiling. Congress pretends...

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Three Things I Think I Think – Not So Grande Stuff

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) So, not so grande, eh? China Evergrande, the Chinese real estate developer has everyone worried these days about the second coming of Lehman Bros. The company has shrunk by about 90% so they’re not so grande anymore. Get it? Did you catch that joke? Geez, I am hilarious. Maybe they should call themselves Nevergrande? Get it? Did you catch that joke? I’m here all day folks. This sort of thing has happened a few times in the last 10 years...

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Introducing the Discipline Fund ETF

I am thrilled to announce the first day of trading of the Discipline Fund ETF on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker DSCF. Discipline Funds is a new company that I’ve formed in 2021 to serve as the fund management arm of my investment advisory firm, Orcam Financial Group, LLC. We’ve partnered with the NYSE and Wes Gray at Alpha Architect to make this happen. These are incredible partners. You have no idea. Well, maybe you do. Anyone who knows the NYSE knows, well, it’s the NYSE....

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Yes, Dow 36,000 Was Very Wrong

Ken Rogoff took the WSJ yesterday to explain why the infamous Dow 36,000 prediction wasn’t wrong. He writes: Their simple policy advice: Buy a diversified portfolio of stocks, and don’t put too much money in bonds. Over the long run, stocks offer a higher return without significantly greater risk. He goes on to explain that this advice was somehow correct. The problem is, if you chose not to hold bonds in 1998 you generated far worse nominal AND risk adjusted returns than a simple 60/40...

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Three Things I Think I Think – It’s Crypto All The Way Down….

It’s all anyone can talk about these days so I guess it’s all I can think about….crypto, crypto, crypto.¹ 1) El Salvador and Bitcoin. El Salvador officially adopted Bitcoin as a form of legal tender yesterday. We’ve discussed this before, and it is very, very, very strange, but maybe not so strange in the specific case of El Salvador (ES). So, long story short – ES is a small country that has an unusually high amount of dollar imports mainly because they’re an export based economy that has...

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Three Things I Think I Think – Everything Goes to Zero in the Long Run

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Crypto All Going To Zero? John Paulson of subprime mortgage fame has some negative thoughts on cryptocurrencies: “Cryptocurrencies, regardless of where they’re trading today, will eventually prove to be worthless. Once the exuberance wears off, or liquidity dries up, they will go to zero. I wouldn’t recommend anyone invest in cryptocurrencies,” I’m not sure why people need to take such extreme views on so many things financially related....

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Three Things I Think I Think – I See Dead Mutual Funds

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) I see dead people. I mean, dead mutual funds. Back in 2012 I wrote an article about how horrible mutual funds are. I said: Mutual funds are a dinosaur product.  The higher fees, reduced tax efficiency, lack of liquidity, and weak performance continues to hurt the industry.  And this is only just beginning.  There’s still $24 trillion in global mutual funds just waiting to find a new home.  This tidal wave of money will flow out of mutual...

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