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The author Cullen Roche
Cullen Roche
Former mail delivery boy turned multi-asset investment manager, author, Ironman & chicken farmer. Probably should have stayed with mail delivery....

Cullen Roche: Pragmatic Capitalism

Three Things I Think I Think – When Things Break

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: As a housekeeping note – check out my new YouTube channel. It’s short hits on money and finance so people who like the long form reading might not enjoy it as much, but I am giving it a try. Constructive criticism is extremely valuable as I want this to be valuable to people.  1) Will interest rate risk transform to credit risk?  One of the things I’ve been hammering on lately is that I think that Fed made a policy mistake by not being more...

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Is It Time to Panic?

Here are two short videos discussing the current market environment and how we can think about navigating it. In short, I am feeling very cautious about the next 18-24 months and I think there’s a very good chance that this downturn is part of a more prolonged economic adjustment that involves digesting the War in Ukraine as well as the COVID boom “giveback”. This doesn’t mean you should panic though. The key to navigating this envionrment is understanding your risk profile, matching your...

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Three Things I Think I Think – 3MM, Student Loans & Passive Investing

Here are some things I Think I am thinking about: 1) Here’s a new episode of Three Minute Money. This one is “Where Does Money Come From?” I’m still getting the wheels greased here and building up for more interesting and advanced topics, but these are good building blocks. I hope you enjoy it. [embedded content] 2) Passive investing is ruining the world (again). Marc Andreessen and Elon Musk were railing against passive indexing over the weekend and that sparked a big debate about the...

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Three Things I Think I Think – 3 Minute Money, Inflation & Elon Buys Twitter

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Three Minute Money – What is Money? Here’s the first installment of Three Minute Money, my new YouTube series. My goal is to develop this channel into educational content, current events, myth busting, Q&A and whatever viewers want. The short video content is much more digestible and I think I can communicate these points more succinctly than I do in writing. It also creates a better archived content feed which I think users will...

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What Is Money?

We had to cover the most essential question there is. What is money? We go into the essential properties of money and the scale of moneyness. All in less than 3 minutes. #money #bitcoin #stocks Links to learn more: 1) What is money? IMF https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/09/basics.htm 2) What is money? Pragmatic Capitalism https://www.pragcap.com/what-is-money/ 3) Understanding the Modern Monetary System. Cullen Roche...

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Introducing Three Minute Money

I listen to a ton of YouTube and podcasts these days, but have to be honest – I just don’t have the patience or time for the long videos anymore. I know that time is our most valuable asset and so that prompted me to start a new YouTube channel called Three Minute Money. Every video will be under three minutes and will range from educational content to current events to Q&A to who knows? I hope you’ll subscribe and engage with the YouTube community there to help us all get a little...

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Three Minute Money Intro

Welcome to Three Minute Minute where we talk about all things money without wasting your most valuable asset - TIME. My name is Cullen Roche and I've spent the last 20 years studying money. I've written best selling books, some of the most widely read research in the world and managed billions of dollars in investments. And now I want to spread the knowledge and keep learning. I am excited to help you learn about and navigate the world of money.

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A Cautionary Note About Home Prices

This note is intended to provide some perspective on what appears to be turning into an increasingly speculative fervor in residential real estate. I hope it provides some practical views on the current environment.  It was just a year ago that I was here saying residential real estate is not a bubble and that hyperbolic narratives were going too far. And then in my 2022 annual outlook I said that speculating on residential real estate looked increasingly dangerous. Today, I feel bearish...

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Some Pleasant Arithmetic Behind Falling Prices

A few years ago I wrote a post about how I was having trouble constructing portfolios that could meet a conservative 4% rate of return. With bond yields near 0% across so much of the global bond market it was becoming increasingly common to hear that “3% is the new 4%” withdrawal rate. But with the recent bump in interest rates the story has changed dramatically and as is so often the case, lower prices today mean better returns in the future. Let me explain. One thing I love about high...

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