Tag Archives: global economy

Global appetite for large-cap Chinese stocks was dampened by fears of a Chinese financial crisis. Now that China has shown that it can de-lever the financial system and maintain strong growth at the same time, investors are scrambling to add Chinese stocks to portfolios before the MSCI indices expand to include China later this year. With the HSCEI up 17.2% year to date, any global portfolio that did not include China would have underperformed.... Asia TimesH-shares soar as global investors...

Beneath the rosy picture of the upturning global economy. I would like to be optimistic that this upturn will be followed by a shallow recession and then continued economic growth. After all, banks have been recapitalized and companies are flush with cash. But on the household side of things, it’s a different story. What I see is rising economic and social anxiety and a broken social compact in advanced nations. This is feeding political populism, even as the economy enters its best phase...

While out of paradigm with MMT, the conventional thinking underlying the scenario that Crooke depicts reflects a widespread view that is shared by most political leaders who are responsible for shaping the world through their decisions. This thinking lies at the basis not only of global finance but also geopolitics and geostrategy. So, it is important to understand it because it is shaping emerging events of great consequence. Financial warfare can easily turn into military warfare, and...

Forecast.Credit Writedowns As the Fed meets, expect expansion through 2018, but problems thereafterEdward Harrison

Review and critique of the latest OECD World Economic Outlook, from a Marxian POV. Useful. The key for me, as readers of this blog know, is what is happening to the profitability of capital in the major economies. If profitability is rising, then corporate investment and economic growth will follow – but also vice versa. But if profitability and profits are falling, debt accumulated will become a major burden. Eventually the zombies will start to go bankrupt, spreading across sectors and...

According to fresh figures from the IMF (October 24), Russia’s GDP is expected to exceed $4 trillion first time ever. By this measure, Russia is the 6th largest economy in the world, virtually on par with Germany, who scored $4.15 trillion. At the same time, China has solidified its position as the world’s indisputably largest economy. With its $23 trillion, China’s economy is already bigger 1/5th than the U.S. economy with its $19 trillion [based on PPP].... Emerging countries, and not...

Most of the recent economic news from developed economies has been good. European growth, in particular, seems to have accelerated. Nothing I see in the economic data causes me worry. So I am cautiously optimistic that this upturn will last at least through 2018. So let me go through the data, my outlook and my concerns.... Credit Writedowns The global economy is hitting its stride right nowEdward Harrison

Short review of Dani Rodrik's latest book, Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy. In that sense the title of the book is rather misleading. Although it is discussed a lot, this is hardly just a book about trade. Indeed the subtitle “Ideas for a sane world economy” conveys a better picture of what it is about. The book is based on a collection of articles written for Project Syndicate and elsewhere, and occasionally the joins show. But that feeling quickly gets lost in a...

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its biannual “World Economic Outlook” (WEO) today, presenting a 300-page overview of the world economy and where it might be going. The Fund is one of the most powerful and influential financial institutions in the world. Despite the fact that this flagship publication, and the Fund’s hundreds of PhD economists, missed the two biggest asset bubbles in US and world history (the stock market bubble in the late 1990s and the housing bubble that...

The rules of the global economy are rigged against those who have to work to earn a living, and in favour of multinational corporations and the ultra-rich. It is no accident that, as Oxfam has revealed, the richest 1% own more wealth than the rest of humanity combined. This is inequality by design. The world is facing a huge decent work deficit, and the rules of the global economy need to change. The just-so story of economic liberalism is that economics is a natural science and economics...