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Edward Harrison — Some thoughts on this global economic recovery amidst longer-term economic uncertainty

Summary:
Beneath the rosy picture of the upturning global economy. I would like to be optimistic that this upturn will be followed by a shallow recession and then continued economic growth. After all, banks have been recapitalized and companies are flush with cash. But on the household side of things, it’s a different story. What I see is rising economic and social anxiety and a broken social compact in advanced nations. This is feeding political populism, even as the economy enters its best phase of growth in a decade. When the economy turns down, the social, political and economic environment will be even more precarious. And the populism will be more extreme. Think Donald Trump is bad?Credit Writedowns Some thoughts on this global economic recovery amidst longer-term economic uncertaintyEdward

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Beneath the rosy picture of the upturning global economy.
I would like to be optimistic that this upturn will be followed by a shallow recession and then continued economic growth. After all, banks have been recapitalized and companies are flush with cash. But on the household side of things, it’s a different story. What I see is rising economic and social anxiety and a broken social compact in advanced nations. This is feeding political populism, even as the economy enters its best phase of growth in a decade. When the economy turns down, the social, political and economic environment will be even more precarious. And the populism will be more extreme.
Think Donald Trump is bad?

Credit Writedowns
Some thoughts on this global economic recovery amidst longer-term economic uncertainty
Edward Harrison

Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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