Tag Archives: jobless caims

Initial jobless claims: unresolved seasonality obscures cautionary YoY comparisons  – by New Deal democrat For the last few weeks, I have been highlighting that there is likely some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in the initial claims numbers. That certainly looked like the case this week, as a sharp decline mirrored a similar sharp decline 52 weeks ago. To wit: initial claims declined -20,000 to 201,000, the lowest number since...

Initial claims: yellow caution flag turns more orange  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims, which were one of the most positive indicators of all last year, have turned darker in the last several months, and are edging closer to triggering their recession warning levels. Claims were unchanged at a revised 264,000 last week, the highest level in over 18 months. The more important 4 week average rose 8,500 to 255,750. Continuing claims, with...

Benchmark revisions, oh my! Four week average of jobless claims makes all-time 55 year series low The DoL made revisions to the last five years of jobless claims, in particular revising the seasonal adjustments, and the differences are eye-popping. Last week initial claims (blue) were reported at 202,000. With the revisions, they are now 171,000! This week they declined -5,000 from that revised figure to 166,000, tying the revised number from...

Jobless claims blow away the Delta wave (but beware Labor Day seasonality) This morning’s initial jobless claims report makes it shockingly evident that the Delta wave has had no appreciable effect on at least the “firing” side of the jobs market (vs. the “hiring” side, where it might have). Initial claims declined 35,000 to 310,000, and the 4-week average also declined 16,750 to 339,500, both yet more pandemic lows: By way of...

Initial claims continue rangebound, while continuing claims continue slow decline, by New Deal Democrat Initial jobless claims declined 12,000 this week to 375,000, still 7,000 above their best pandemic levels of 368,000 set on June 26 and July 10. The 4 week average of claims increased by 1,750 to 396,250, 11,750 above its pandemic low of 384,500 set on July 10: Significant progress in the decline of initial claims remains stalled, as...

Initial jobless claims: it appears that the worst of the winter 2020-21 increase is behind us Let me start off this week’s review of initial jobless claims by pre-debunking something I am sure is going to be said elsewhere: a lack of reporting in Texas did *not* appreciably skew this week’s numbers. Applying the same workaround I did for Hurricanes Sandy and Harvey, I.e., subtracting the affected State’s data from the unadjusted number, to see how...