Tag Archives: July 2023

Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -9,000 to 228,000 last week, and the four week average declined -9,250 to 237,500. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, rose 33,000 to 1.754 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 7.0% YoY, the four week average up 10.6%, and continuing claims up 30.8%: Just as importantly, the average for July so far...

Spencer England departed a year or so ago, Barkley Rosser from Econospeak recently, and now my friend Dan . . . Daniel Robert Crawford, 75, died peacefully at his home, surrounded by hisfamily, July 17, 2023. He was born October 30, 1947 to Robert and RuthCrawford in Oakland, CA. Dan’s family of origin was a Navy family so theymoved several times before settling in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio. Dangraduated with Honors in 1965 from Cuyahoga Falls...

Spencer England departed a year or so ago, Barkley Rosser from Econospeak recently, and now my friend Dan . . . Obituary Daniel Robert Crawford, 75, died peacefully at his home, surrounded by hisfamily, July 17,2023. He was born October 30, 1947 to Robert and RuthCrawford in Oakland, CA. Dan’s family of origin was a Navy family so theymoved several times before settling in Cuyahoga Falls,...

June housing report: a tale a two diametrically opposed sectors  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that housing under construction, along with new vehicle sales, were two important reasons that no economic downturn had occurred yet. Today’s report on housing construction for June showed two almost diametrically opposed trends: single family houses had a sharp increase in permits and starts, while units under construction made a 12 month...

June housing report: a tale a two diametrically opposed sectors  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that housing under construction, along with new vehicle sales, were two important reasons that no economic downturn had occurred yet. Today’s report on housing construction for June showed two almost diametrically opposed trends: single family houses had a sharp increase in permits and starts, while units under construction made a 12 month...

Weekly Indicators for July 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several indicators that had been stubbornly positive throughout the decline in leading metrics as of this past week finally turned either neutral or negative. Much as the dominant punditry at the moment is that the economy will actually stick a “soft landing,” these turns argue that instead consumers may finally be...

Weekly Indicators for July 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several indicators that had been stubbornly positive throughout the decline in leading metrics as of this past week finally turned either neutral or negative. Much as the dominant punditry at the moment is that the economy will actually stick a “soft landing,” these turns argue that instead consumers may finally be...

The American working class is doing better, thank you very much  – by New Deal democrat With the release of the CPI report earlier this week, I can update several measures of average middle class American income. Real average hourly wages increased 0.2% in June, and are up 1.6% from one year ago: Real aggregate payrolls for the entire spectrum of nonsupervisory American workers increased  0.3% in June and are up 3.1% from one year ago:...

The American working class is doing better, thank you very much  – by New Deal democrat With the release of the CPI report earlier this week, I can update several measures of average middle class American income. Real average hourly wages increased 0.2% in June, and are up 1.6% from one year ago: Real aggregate payrolls for the entire spectrum of nonsupervisory American workers increased  0.3% in June and are up 3.1% from one year ago:...

Another well defined report by NDd about the possibility of recessions. Everything points in such a direction. If the Fed keeps raising its rate, it is almost a foregone conclusion. One a recession starts there is no backing away from it (as if we could). Scenes from the employment report: important leading and coincident indicators of recession  – by New Deal democrat Here’s another detailed look at some significant data from last Friday’s...