Tag Archives: June 2023

Scenes from the June employment report: consumption leads employment, goods vs. services edition  – by New Deal democrat No big new economic news today, so let’s take a more in-depth look at some of the information from Friday’s employment report. Today I’m going to focus on the division between goods and services. As I’ve written many times in the past, consumption leads employment. Typically I have shown that via real retail sales. The...

SUNDAY, JULY 2, 2023 Weekly Indicators for June 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Movement among the indicators continues to be slow as molasses, but an important bifurcation stands out: indicators focusing on services continue to show good growth, while indicators focusing on goods are either stalled or outright contracting. As usual, clicking over and reading will...

Maybe you have been unaware of it, the repayment of student loans is to begin again come September 2023. President Biden had stopped all payments and interest accruing early on during the Covid Pandemic. Offering up reductions of ten to twenty thousand in reductions for outstanding loan was apart of the president’s plan. For many this would be adequate. However, there is a sizeable number of borrowers who owe far more than this amount. In many...

Alito pretends physics does not exist. Nearby wetlands do not matter unless they have a surface connection to a stream, river, or lake. The notion a wetland can only be linked to streams or lakes by a continuous surface connection—presumably visible to the justices themselves—is fundamentally at odds with hydrology or the science of water. The movement of water beneath the surface (groundwater) connects water bodies in ways that are just as or more...

Initial and continuing claims: yellow caution flag reinstated  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims rose sharply last week, up 28,000 to 261,000 (an 18 month high). The 4 week average rose 7,500 to 237,250, still lower than its April peak. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, declined -37,000 to 1.757 million: When we had a similar spike a month ago, it turned out to be a artifact of mis-reporting by Massachusetts, so take this with a...

Open Thread June 4, 2023, Angry Bear, angry bear blog Just a thought, and this new at this moment. Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh joined with the court’s liberals in affirming a lower-court ruling finding a likely violation of the Voting Rights Act in an Alabama congressional map with one majority Black seat out of seven congressional districts in a state where more than one in four residents is Black. I believe SCOTUS...

New and improved initial claims! Now including comparison to Sahm Rule  – by New Deal democrat I’m making an important addition to my weekly blurb on jobless claims this week: I’m showing how it compares with and leads the Sahm Rule. Just in case you’re not familiar with the Sahm Rule, it is a rule of thumb started by economist Claudia Sahm, stating that the economy is in a recession when the 3 month average of the unemployment rate rises...