Tag Archives: Oil

Looks like the last blip up just got reversed so it continues to go nowhere and it’s at levels higher than before the last recession: Consumer CreditHighlightsRevolving credit barely made it into the plus column in October, up $0.2 billion for what is, however, an eighth straight gain. Non-revolving credit, which in contrast to revolving credit hasn’t posted a decline since April 2010, rose an intrend $15.8 billion, once again boosted by vehicle financing and also by student loans which are...

The growth rate continues to decelerate (see chart): NFP HighlightsPayroll growth is solid and, though wages aren’t building steam, today’s employment report fully cements expectations for December liftoff. Nonfarm payrolls rose a very solid 211,000 in November which is safely above expectations for 190,000. And there’s 35,000 in upward revisions to the two prior months with October now standing at a very impressive 298,000. The unemployment rate is steady and low at 5.0 percent with the...

More evidence the capital spending contraction is not over: CEO Confidence Goes From Bad to Worse Dec 1 (Fox Business) — CEO confidence in the U.S. economy is dwindling. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index for the 4Q, which looks out six months, fell to the lowest level in three years For third consecutive quarter, U.S. CEOs cautious on economy Dec 1 (Reuters) — The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index fell 6.6 points to 67.5 in the fourth quarter. The long-term...

While demand for Saudi crude is up a bit, seems it’s still far below their presumed 12 million or so bpd capacity, and their strategy has been to lower their prices to the point where they are selling their full capacity: Nice bounce here, as the year over year comparisons get ‘easier’: RedbookHighlightsStore sales surged in the November 28 week, the week that includes Black Friday. Redbook’s same-store year-on-year sales tally jumped to plus 3.9 percent, more than doubling the pace of...

Just came out. Saudis still producing and selling far below their stated ‘cap’: OPEC November Crude Output Down 33,000 Bbl/Day to 32.121 Mln2015-11-30 17:55:55.463 GMTNew York, Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) — Crude-oil production from the 12 OPEC members in November declined 33,000 barrels a day from October, the latest Bloomberg survey of producers, oil companies and industry analysts shows. Figures are in the thousands of barrels a day.Nov. Oct. Monthly 1/1/2012 Nov. vs Est.OPEC Country Est. Output...

Still negative. This is just a composite of other indexes that have been released: Chicago Fed National Activity IndexHighlightsOctober was a soft month for the economy but solidly improved from September, based on the national activity index which is at minus 0.04 vs September’s revised minus 0.29. October’s improvement is centered in the key component of employment, at plus 0.11 vs September’s minus 0.06. The gain reflects the month’s very strong 271,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls and the 1...

So much for housing leading the way up- looks to have gone from flat to down: MBA Mortgage Applications For the most part Saudis have been lowering premiums and increasing discounts which causes prices to fall to get their sales up to their pumping capacity: Not without a bit of pain, which they may have come to believe inevitable due to long term supply/demand dynamics: Saudi Arabia risks destroying Opec and feeding the Isil monster (Telegraph) &#8212 The rumblings of revolt against...

This means they continue with their discount policy until their entire output capacity is being sold, and then continue to sell their full output capacity at ‘market prices’. That is, they no longer want the high priced producers to benefit from their willingness to to be swing producer and support prices by not selling their full output: Moving ahead, Opec — led by Saudi Arabia — plans to pump as much as it can towards meeting global oil demand, leaving higher-cost producers to make up the...

If the Saudis are looking to pump more seems they have to continue to lower prices:Sure looks like housing still can’t get out of its own way: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsMortgage applications are settling down after spiking and dipping sharply in volatility tied to new disclosure rules put in place last month. Both the purchase and refinance indexes fell an incremental 1.0 percent in the October 30 week with the purchase index up a very solid 20 percent year-on-year. Rates were...

So when the Saudis widened their discounts on October 5 it looked to me like they were inducing a downward price spiral that would continue until either they altered pricing or their output increased to full capacity so they couldn’t sell any more at those discounts. So far neither has happened: Fundamentally the euro also looks very strong to me, with a large and rising trade surplus vs a rising trade deficit for the US, and negative rates and QE ultimately further remove euro income from...