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Tag Archives: recession forecast

Disaggregating the Big Picture: the Fed still wants to make your recession forecast wrong

 – by New Deal democrat Today, New Deal democrat offers a Big Picture hypothesis. This is Housing Week, but there is no significant data today, and I’m going to wait for new home sales to be reported on Wednesday before commenting on how existing home sales fit in. In the meantime, let me unpack a Big Picture look. Since the Fed began actively managing interest rates over 60 years ago, expansions and recessions have followed a typical...

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