Tag Archives: scientific method

So how do you make good predictions? I met “superforecaster” Michael Story, who was ranked 18th best among the 20,000 people who formed the Good Judgment team. The team took part in a competition conducted by the US intelligence community to find the world’s best forecasters. Launched in 2011, the four-year contest required the group to provide forecasts on 500 questions ranging from the future for oil prices to the financial outlook. The Good Judgment team won the tournament, reportedly...

Important. I think Noah has this right. Fit the tool to the job, rather than the job to the tool. Aristotle defined speculative knowledge in terms of causal explanation. This definition stuck although Aristotle's analysis of causality did not. In the Posterior Analytics, Aristotle places the following crucial condition on proper knowledge: we think we have knowledge of a thing only when we have grasped its cause (APost. 71 b 9–11. Cf. APost. 94 a 20). That proper knowledge is knowledge...