Tag Archives: Soft-landing

I am late to the discussion of the (possible) US soft landing. I think I better write about the soft landing (so far) in case it is ceasing to be soft (I am not making a forecast). The remarkable thing is that the dramatic increase in the Federal Funds Rate did not induce a downturn let alone a recession The way interest rates affect GDP is principally residential investment and exchange rates. Other monetary authorities also raised rates in...

This is a very short note, prompted by the increasing fears of the default and its consequences, which I think it's greatly exaggerated, and the relatively optimistic views about the effects of monetary tightening. Sure enough, as I noted recently, an adjustment, and lower spending, associated either with an agreement with Congress Republicans (very unlikely) or as contingency plans (14th Amendment of other solutions) are implemented, could certainly through the economy into a recession. But...