Tag Archives: Statistics & Econometrics

Joshua Angrist ‘Nobel Prize’ Lecture 2021 .[embedded content]

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Interpretation of regression results When econometric and statistical textbooks present simple (and multiple) regression analysis for cross-sectional data, they often do it with regressions like “regress test score (y) on study hours (x)” and get the result y = constant + slope coefficient*x + error term. When speaking of increases or decreases in x in these interpretations, we have to remember that it is a question of cross-sectional data and ‘increases’...

Causal mediation and the limits of linear models (student stuff) .[embedded content]

.[embedded content] Spending a couple of hours going through a JEL survey of modern research on the gender wage gap, yours truly was struck almost immediately by how little that research really has accomplished in terms of explaining gender wage discrimination. With all the heavy regression and econometric alchemy used, wage discrimination is somehow more or less conjured away … Trying to reduce the risk of having established only ‘spurious relations’ when dealing with...

How to get from association to causation — Diversity of Evidence vs RCTs .[embedded content]

On mediation and causality “Mediation analysis” is this thing where you have a treatment and an outcome and you’re trying to model how the treatment works: how much does it directly affect the outcome, and how much is the effect “mediated” through intermediate variables … In the real world, it’s my impression that almost all the mediation analyses that people actually fit in the social and medical sciences are misguided: lots of examples where the...

Binomial test (student stuff) .[embedded content]

En grupp ‘högpresterande’ elever — Ada, Beda, och Cissi — söker in till en friskola. Ada och Beda blir antagna och börjar på den. Cissi blir också antagen, men väljer att gå på en kommunal skola. En annan grupp ‘lågpresterande’ elever — bestående av Dora och Eva — söker och blir både antagna till en friskola, men Eva väljer att gå på en kommunal skola. Om vi nu tittar på hur de presterar på ett kunskapsprov får vi följande resulatat: Ada — 22, Beda — 20, Cissi — 22, Dora — 12,...

If we make a Pearson’s correlation analysis on the variables in the scatterplot above — the corona vaccination rate and the (7 day) case rate per 100 000 people (data from last week) — we get an r = -0,15. And still in the youtube video below Sahra Wagenknecht says there is “keine Zusammenhang” between vaccination rate and case rate for the countries in the plot. Maybe someone ought to teach high-profile anti-vaxxers some basic statistics … .[embedded content]...