Tag Archives: Theory of Science & Methodology

LOGIC of science vs. METHODS of science  [embedded content]

Deduction — induction — abduction In science – and economics – one could argue that there basically are three kinds of argumentation patterns/schemes/methods/strategies available: Deduction Premise 1: All Chicago economists believe in REH Premise 2: Robert Lucas is a Chicago economist —————————————————————– Conclusion: Robert Lucas believes in REH Here we have an example of a logically valid deductive inference. In a hypothetico-deductive reasoning — hypothetico-deductive confirmation in...

Axiomatics — the economics fetish Mainstream — neoclassical — economics has become increasingly irrelevant to the understanding of the real world. The main reason for this irrelevance is the failure of economists to match their deductive-axiomatic methods with their subject. The idea that a good scientific theory must be derived from a formal axiomatic system has little if any foundation in the methodology or history of science. Nevertheless, it has become almost an article of faith in...

Bayes theorem — what’s the big deal? The plausibility of your belief depends on the degree to which your belief–and only your belief–explains the evidence for it. The more alternative explanations there are for the evidence, the less plausible your belief is. That, to me, is the essence of Bayes’ theorem. “Alternative explanations” can encompass many things. Your evidence might be erroneous, skewed by a malfunctioning instrument, faulty analysis, confirmation bias, even fraud. Your...