As GDPs crumble… With the pause button pressed on nearly half of economic activity in the US and the EU for what is likely to be at least a period of three months, consumption, investment and trade have all collapsed. A contraction of as much as 10-20% of GDP or worse is possible. Pervasive uncertainty about the timing of the development of a viable treatment and/or vaccine means there is no light at the end of the tunnel yet. Even when we get there, the trauma of the COVID-19 meltdown...
Read More »Trump’s blame-avoidance is politically shrewd
Trump’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is predictably chaotic, vengeful, irresponsible, and impulsive. His actions have worsened the epidemic, they have led to unnecessary deaths and to a very painful economic lockdown. Coming in the year before he is up for re-election, this seems self-defeating: if Trump could re-run history I have little doubt he would take aggressive action to nip the epidemic in the bud. That said, the political strategy that...
Read More »Environmental law after a year of catastrophe
The government is undertaking a review of one of our central pieces of environmental law, the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Protection Act. They have a facility for quick comments of up to 300 words, as well as traditional submission (thanks to the Australian Conservation Foundation for the link). Here’s my 300 words The catastrophes that have afflicted Australia and the rest of the world over the last year, including coral bleaching, unprecedented wildfires and the...
Read More »Flattening the curve vs (near) eradication
Here are some comments I’ve written in a rapid response to Brendan Murphy’s recent press conference. (I haven’t yet seen even the summary of the modelling that has apparently been released, just a picture of flattened curves.) The idea of “flattening the curve” is fundamentally misleading, since it implies that most people will be infected until herd immunity is achieved, while the number of cases remains within the capacity of the health system. But assuming spare capacity of 2...
Read More »Isolation Waltz
from The Guardian Move over Mozart, here comes Stelios Kerasidis. A seven-year-old Greek prodigy has penned an “isolation waltz” inspired by the pandemic. The hypnotic, fugue-like melody has picked up more than 43,000 hits on YouTube since its launch last week. “Hi guys! I’m Stelios. Let’s be just a teeny bit more patient and we will soon be out swimming in the sea,” he beams, perched on his piano stool, feet barely touching the floor. “I’m dedicating to you a piece of my own.” The work,...
Read More »Ten things to know about CMHC’s Insured Mortgage Purchase Program
In March 2020, the Trudeau government launched a new version of the Insured Mortgage Purchase Program (IMPP). According to CMHC’s website: “Under this program, the government will purchase up to $50 billion of insured mortgage pools through CMHC.” Here are 10 things to know: 1. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is a federally-owned crown corporation. Many of us know CMHC as the federal agency that works with provincial and territorial governments to assist some low and...
Read More »Ten things to know about CMHC’s Insured Mortgage Purchase Program
In March 2020, the Trudeau government launched a new version of the Insured Mortgage Purchase Program (IMPP). According to CMHC’s website: “Under this program, the government will purchase up to $50 billion of insured mortgage pools through CMHC.” Here are 10 things to know: 1. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is a federally-owned crown corporation. Many of us know CMHC as the federal agency that works with provincial and territorial governments to assist some low and...
Read More »Highest U.S. unemployment rates in history and tomorrow
Health care MUST be in public provision and accessible to all in order to . . .
from Grazia Ietto Gillies The expenditure given [in the chart] include both private and public expenditure as far as I know. That the US have a VERY inefficient health care system is well known but it can only be made clear by looking also at outcomes such as Infant mortality rate or life expectancy alla available from OECD health statistics. Why such inefficiency. Well then you have to look at the organization of health systems not just the stats. In countries with high private provision...
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