Lars P. Syll — Methodological overconfidence

Summary:
You can't get more mileage out of your model than the assumptions contain. It's called "scope."Overconfidence or sleight of hand? The presumption is that professionals know better. But if they admit the scope, their influence would be limited.  This could also be accounted for by professionals acting unprofessionally owing to perceived advantages of doing so. So either way, perverse incentives seem to be in play.Lars P. Syll’s BlogMethodological overconfidenceLars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

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