Friday , May 2 2025
Home / Mike Norman Economics / Lars P. Syll — Methodological overconfidence

Lars P. Syll — Methodological overconfidence

Summary:
You can't get more mileage out of your model than the assumptions contain. It's called "scope."Overconfidence or sleight of hand? The presumption is that professionals know better. But if they admit the scope, their influence would be limited.  This could also be accounted for by professionals acting unprofessionally owing to perceived advantages of doing so. So either way, perverse incentives seem to be in play.Lars P. Syll’s BlogMethodological overconfidenceLars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Robert Vienneau writes Austrian Capital Theory And Triple-Switching In The Corn-Tractor Model

Mike Norman writes The Accursed Tariffs — NeilW

Mike Norman writes IRS has agreed to share migrants’ tax information with ICE

Mike Norman writes Trump’s “Liberation Day”: Another PR Gag, or Global Reorientation Turning Point? — Simplicius

You can't get more mileage out of your model than the assumptions contain. It's called "scope."

Overconfidence or sleight of hand? The presumption is that professionals know better. But if they admit the scope, their influence would be limited.  This could also be accounted for by professionals acting unprofessionally owing to perceived advantages of doing so. So either way, perverse incentives seem to be in play.

Lars P. Syll’s Blog
Methodological overconfidence
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *