Saturday , April 19 2025
Home / Mike Norman Economics / Yield Curve Inversions And Recessions — Brian Romanchuk

Yield Curve Inversions And Recessions — Brian Romanchuk

Summary:
This article continues the previous discussion of bank net interest margins. In it, I discussed how changes in the yield curve changed the net interest margin (NIM) for banks. This showed up historically — when bank balance sheets were shattered by the combination of holding long-dated mortgages with low fixed coupons versus having a sky-high short-term rate imposed by deranged Monetarists. In this article, I address a common macroeconomic story: yield curve inversions cause recessions by the alleged effect on NIM. As a spoiler, I do not think that story holds water in “modern” banking systems..…Bond EconomicsYield Curve Inversions And RecessionsBrian Romanchuk

Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Robert Vienneau writes Austrian Capital Theory And Triple-Switching In The Corn-Tractor Model

Mike Norman writes The Accursed Tariffs — NeilW

Mike Norman writes IRS has agreed to share migrants’ tax information with ICE

Mike Norman writes Trump’s “Liberation Day”: Another PR Gag, or Global Reorientation Turning Point? — Simplicius

This article continues the previous discussion of bank net interest margins. In it, I discussed how changes in the yield curve changed the net interest margin (NIM) for banks. This showed up historically — when bank balance sheets were shattered by the combination of holding long-dated mortgages with low fixed coupons versus having a sky-high short-term rate imposed by deranged Monetarists. In this article, I address a common macroeconomic story: yield curve inversions cause recessions by the alleged effect on NIM. As a spoiler, I do not think that story holds water in “modern” banking systems..…
Bond Economics
Yield Curve Inversions And Recessions
Brian Romanchuk






Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *