Slight decline in housing construction: the negative actual economic impact has not yet begun – by New Deal democrat Housing permits (gold) increased slightly in January from their December lows, while the more volatile housing starts (blue) declined again. The much less volatile single family permits (red, right scale) also declined again to a new post-pandemic low: This is a very important long leading indicator, and shows that coming misery in the economy due to housing sector is nowhere near bottoming out. But, as I wrote on Monday, the most important metric in the entire economy right now is probably housing units under construction, which is the “real” economic impact of the industry. Here there was a very slight (less than 1%)
Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: Hot Topics, housing construction, US EConomics
This could be interesting, too:
NewDealdemocrat writes Real GDP for Q3 nicely positive, but long leading components mediocre to negative for the second quarter in a row
Joel Eissenberg writes Healthcare and the 2024 presidential election
NewDealdemocrat writes JOLTS report for September shows continued deceleration in almost all metrics, now close to a cause for concern
NewDealdemocrat writes Repeat home sales accelerate slightly monthly, but continue to show YoY deceleration
Slight decline in housing construction: the negative actual economic impact has not yet begun
– by New Deal democrat
Housing permits (gold) increased slightly in January from their December lows, while the more volatile housing starts (blue) declined again. The much less volatile single family permits (red, right scale) also declined again to a new post-pandemic low:
This is a very important long leading indicator, and shows that coming misery in the economy due to housing sector is nowhere near bottoming out.
But, as I wrote on Monday, the most important metric in the entire economy right now is probably housing units under construction, which is the “real” economic impact of the industry. Here there was a very slight (less than 1%) decline from a revised peak in October:
The bottom line is that the actual *economic* downturn in housing has not begun yet.