by I have been very alarmed by the risk of a Chinese (PRC) invasion of Taiwan (province of the RC). The main reason is that the most Xi Jin Ping announced that he has instructed his generals (and admirals) to be develope the capicto to invade by 2027 (the 30s anniversary of the return of Hong Kong to the PRC). This does not imply an invasion then. Landing craft and landing ships (please don’t ask me to explain or define the distinction) would be key to an invasion. What does China have and how have they recently expanding their capacity to land troops and armor ? A Wikipedia article (blush, don’t blame me blame google) updated to early 2024 reports a total of 69 landing ships in active service. This does not strike me as a country preparing
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Robert Waldmann considers the following as important: Chinese Invasion Fleet, Uncategorized
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I have been very alarmed by the risk of a Chinese (PRC) invasion of Taiwan (province of the RC). The main reason is that the most
Xi Jin Ping announced that he has instructed his generals (and admirals) to be develope the capicto to invade by 2027 (the 30s anniversary of the return of Hong Kong to the PRC). This does not imply an invasion then.
Landing craft and landing ships (please don’t ask me to explain or define the distinction) would be key to an invasion. What does China have and how have they recently expanding their capacity to land troops and armor ? A Wikipedia article (blush, don’t blame me blame google) updated to early 2024 reports a total of 69 landing ships in active service. This does not strike me as a country preparing for a massive amphibious invasion 3 years from now. Also
” The construction of the large Yuzhao-class amphibious transport docks (LPDs) (pictured) indicated an important shift toward blue water capabilities for the PLAN. However, the Landing Ship, Tanks (LSTs) of the 072 series still constitute the core of PLAN amphibious capabilities. With approximately 26 confirmed in service, the PLAN possesses the capabilities to conduct amphibious operations in the littoral waters of the South East Asian region, as well as a limited capability in outer sea landings. Most vessels are only capable of transporting troops while some are capable of transporting limited numbers of armored vehicles.”
This seems completely inadequate.
The type 71 Yuzhao class amphibous transport dock is more impressive but there only 8 of them. I think they might be worth a harpoon each. I am fairly sure they are vulnerable as they are armed with machine cannons not anti missile missiles.
It can carry helicopters. Helicopters can be shot down with Stingers (I cheched as they are much less not than jets – the complaint is that a stinger can lock on only if fired within 2 KM. This would not comfort me if I were flying a helicopter over a bit of the straights of Taiwan
It also carries up to 4 Type_726_LCAC hovercraft
Moving at 80 knots (about 95 mph) they are very fast compared to ships, but very slow compared to airplanes. They seem super vulernable to me. I think their propellors would suck in FPV drones. Their skirt looks extremely vulnerable (what do I know). On the other hand it looks cool.
People who know a whole lot more than I do doubt that the PRC could succesfully invade Taiwan.
I also have the impression that they aren’t really trying to develope the capacity to really actually invade Taiwan as opposed to the capacity to say they have an impressive navy