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G.A. Barnard: The “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood — Debate between G. A. Barnard and Leonard Jimmie Savage

Summary:
Similar to there Bayesian versus frequentist debate in statistical reasoning.Likelihood Principle My epistemological view on this is that the border between them is fuzzy and needs to be approached on a case by case basis, along with acknowledging a cognitive bias toward greater certainty than is attainable from the given and the reasoning about it. Humans don't like uncertainty and have a strong bias toward minimizing it at the risk of fooling themselves. Even statisticians. Error Statistics G.A. Barnard: The “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood Debate between G. A. Barnard and Leonard Jimmie Savage Posted by Deborah Mayo, professor in the Department of Philosophy at Virginia Tech and visiting professor at the Center for the Philosophy of Natural and Social Science

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Similar to there Bayesian versus frequentist debate in statistical reasoning.

Likelihood Principle


My epistemological view on this is that the border between them is fuzzy and needs to be approached on a case by case basis, along with acknowledging a cognitive bias toward greater certainty than is attainable from the given and the reasoning about it.

Humans don't like uncertainty and have a strong bias toward minimizing it at the risk of fooling themselves. Even statisticians.

Error Statistics
G.A. Barnard: The “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood
Debate between G. A. Barnard and Leonard Jimmie Savage
Posted by Deborah Mayo, professor in the Department of Philosophy at Virginia Tech and visiting professor at the Center for the Philosophy of Natural and Social Science of the London School of Economics.
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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