by By New Deal democrat First look at the 2021 economy: housing As I’ve pointed out for years, housing is a long leading indicator. It can give us a decent read on the direction of the overall economy 12 to 18 months out. So the strength in the housing market in the past 6 months has been a powerful positive omen for the economy going into 2021. Yesterday residential construction spending for October was reported and continued that string of very positive signs. The below graph compares inflation-adjusted residential construction spending with single-family housing permits since the construction series began in 2002: These are the two least volatile of all of the housing metrics. Since sales have to be made first and permits obtained, before construction
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by New Deal democrat
First look at the 2021 economy: housing
As I’ve pointed out for years, housing is a long leading indicator. It can give us a decent read on the direction of the overall economy 12 to 18 months out.
So the strength in the housing market in the past 6 months has been a powerful positive omen for the economy going into 2021.
Yesterday residential construction spending for October was reported and continued that string of very positive signs. The below graph compares inflation-adjusted residential construction spending with single-family housing permits since the construction series began in 2002:
These are the two least volatile of all of the housing metrics. Since sales have to be made first and permits obtained, before construction starts, typically construction – while the least volatile of all metrics – lags permits somewhat. But right now, both are at 10 year+ highs.
I put together a much more comprehensive overview of the housing market, including mortgage rates, sales, prices, and inventory, and it is posted at Seeking Alpha.
As usual, clicking over and reading puts a penny or two in my pocket to reward me for my efforts, as well as giving you useful economic information about the future.