Sunday , October 13 2019
Home / Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Real average and aggregate wages for September

Real average and aggregate wages for September Now that we have the September inflation reading, let’s take a look at real wage growth. First of all, nominal average hourly wages in September increased +0.2%, while consumer prices were unchanged. As a result, after rounding, real average hourly wages for non-managerial personnel increased +0.1%. This translates into real wages of 97.7% of their all time high in January 1973: On a YoY basis, real...

Read More »

Closing The Open Skies

Closing The Open Skies Trump’s stonewalling on impeachment is the top story, snore.  Lower down and more important is Trump allowing Turkey to attack the Kurds in Syria with the support of Russia. Even GOP senators do not like this and ISIS fighters may get out. But, heck, those will go to Europe, and unlike the Btis and Canadians, the Kurds did not help us out in Normandy in WW II.  And, probably most important, Trump has major business interests in...

Read More »

Drain the Ukrainian Swamp

Drain the Ukrainian Swamp Trump’s latest excuse for withholding arms for the Ukrainian government to defend itself against Putin’s invitations so he can extract dirt against the Bidens is what again? Oh yea – he wants to root out corruption. REALLY? OK – start with this: KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — As Rudy Giuliani was pushing Ukrainian officials last spring to investigate one of Donald Trump’s main political rivals, a group of individuals with ties to the...

Read More »

Elisabeth Warren Has a Plan for America First

I plan to vote for Warren in the primary and general election, but I am not thrilled by all aspects of her plan for economic patriotism. I also have doubts about medicare for all (good policy bad politics) and forgiving student debt (good politics bad policy). Trying to be brief and actually get to the topic of this post, my problem with Medicare for All is that people fear change and, while a majority support a Medicare option, a minority supports just...

Read More »

Binyamin Applebaum vs Economics 101 ism

I haven’t Applebaum’s book, just a column. I think the elite embrace of economics 101 occurred throughout the rich world. Certainly including Massimo D’Alema (Italian Prime Minister raised as a communist). In any case, I recognise the type over here in Rome (not just in my home town Washington DC) The book is “The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society” by Binyamin Appelbaum My tweet which I copied above is a reply...

Read More »

Does France Have an “Exorbitant Privilege”?

by Joseph Joyce Does France Have an “Exorbitant Privilege”? The U.S. has long been accused of using the international role of the dollar to exercise an “exorbitant privilege.” The term, first used by French finance minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, refers to the ability of the U.S. to finance its current account deficits and acquire foreign assets by issuing dollars as a reserve currency. While flexible exchange rates have lowered the need for reserve...

Read More »

Have we finally reached “full employment”?

Have we finally reached “full employment”? As I noted on Friday, the household report – the one that tells us about unemployment, underemployment, and labor force participation – was particularly good. In fact, the last two months together have been so good that, at least by some measures, we may finally have arrived at “full employment.” Let’s start with the basics. Gains in employment as measured by the household survey (blue in the graphs below), as...

Read More »

The Repo Ruckus

The Repo Ruckus This is now about three weeks old news, but it is increasingly clear that it is not clear why it happened or if it will happen again.  There was an outbreak of completely unexpected volatility in the repo market, where in the past the Fed had carried out open market operations, although that had largely passed.  Indeed in more recent years when the Fed has intervened in markets it has been in the reverse repo market.  In any case,...

Read More »

September jobs report: excellent in coincident and lagging sectors, cautionary in leading sectors

September jobs report: excellent in coincident and lagging sectors, cautionary in leading sectors HEADLINES: +136,000 jobs added (+135,000 ex-Census) U3 unemployment rate declined -0.2% from 3.7% to 3.5% (NEW LOW) U6 underemployment rate declined -0.3% from 7.2% to 6.9% (NEW LOW) Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall strongly suggest that an employment slowdown is coming....

Read More »

Once again, two sharply contrasting reports to start the month

Once again, two sharply contrasting reports to start the month One month ago, I wrote that the first reports in September, construction spending and the ISM manufacturing index, showed two contrasting views of the economy. That was again the case today. As in last month, residential construction spending increased for the month. Below I show it in comparison with single family permits: Typically construction follows permits. In the past few years, it...

Read More »