Weekly Indicators for August 1 – 5 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several important metrics have reversed course in the past month. Interest rates, especially mortgage rates, have declined (in the case of mortgages, by 1 full % from their peak. As many have pointed out, gas prices have fallen by about /gallon from their peak as well. That is putting more money into consumers’ pockets for other things. And stock prices have also reversed, nearing a 3 month high. While that doesn’t negative the message of the long or short leading indicators in the past, it certainly can change their forecasting meaning going forward. In other words, even if we have a recession – which looks
Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: US EConomics
This could be interesting, too:
NewDealdemocrat writes Real GDP for Q3 nicely positive, but long leading components mediocre to negative for the second quarter in a row
Joel Eissenberg writes Healthcare and the 2024 presidential election
NewDealdemocrat writes JOLTS report for September shows continued deceleration in almost all metrics, now close to a cause for concern
NewDealdemocrat writes Repeat home sales accelerate slightly monthly, but continue to show YoY deceleration
Weekly Indicators for August 1 – 5 at Seeking Alpha
– by New Deal democrat
My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
Several important metrics have reversed course in the past month. Interest rates, especially mortgage rates, have declined (in the case of mortgages, by 1 full % from their peak. As many have pointed out, gas prices have fallen by about $1/gallon from their peak as well. That is putting more money into consumers’ pockets for other things. And stock prices have also reversed, nearing a 3 month high.
While that doesn’t negative the message of the long or short leading indicators in the past, it certainly can change their forecasting meaning going forward. In other words, even if we have a recession – which looks nearly certain by now – it *might* be short and shallow.
As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you fully up to date, and reward me with a penny or two for my efforts.