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Jobless claims bounce along near their bottom

Summary:
Jobless claims bounce along near their bottom New jobless claims declined 16,000 to 223,000 last week. This is still 35,000 higher than the low of 188,000 set on December 4; but on the other hand is remains among the lowest weekly figures for the past 50 years. The 4 week average declined 2,000 to 253,250, which is 53,500 above its 199,750 low set on December 25: Continuing claims were unchanged at 1,621,000, 66,000 above their low of 1,555,000 set on January 1: I suspect we have set the lows for this economic cycle. On the other hand, I don’t see any particular reason for jobless claims to rise out of their recent range below 250,000 anytime soon, pandemic permitting. Programming note: I’ll report on the January consumer inflation number

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Jobless claims bounce along near their bottom

New jobless claims declined 16,000 to 223,000 last week. This is still 35,000 higher than the low of 188,000 set on December 4; but on the other hand is remains among the lowest weekly figures for the past 50 years. The 4 week average declined 2,000 to 253,250, which is 53,500 above its 199,750 low set on December 25:


Jobless claims bounce along near their bottom
Continuing claims were unchanged at 1,621,000, 66,000 above their low of 1,555,000 set on January 1:


Jobless claims bounce along near their bottom
I suspect we have set the lows for this economic cycle. On the other hand, I don’t see any particular reason for jobless claims to rise out of their recent range below 250,000 anytime soon, pandemic permitting.


Programming note: I’ll report on the January consumer inflation number later this morning.

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