In Defense of Trump’s Economics by a Billionaire

by
Bill Haskell
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I read this article “MAGA warning to Dems is right on target.” An OpEd by the NY Post. Others may disagree, I believe it to be nonsensical. Just some rich guy saying, I like it like this. Don’t change it. There is a lot saying he is wrong. Adding the detail in brevity. You can always click on a link to get more detail.

Here is Jamie Dimon comping trump and Biden on the economy. What do you think he is worried about over the next four years? First, what is Jamie Dimon saying “Jamie Dimon’s MAGA warning to Dems is right on target,” msn.com, NYP Editorial Opinion.

A fisking (thanks Joel) we will go . . .

“’Just take a step back and be honest,” urged Dimon in a CNBC interview at the World Economic Forum confab:

Jamie: “He (trump) was kind of right about NATO.” To claim trump is the first who has talked about NATO burdens is silly. He just stomped on an old issue which has been brought up by prior presidents. NATO is not an institution in which the United States invests and then achieves a material return. The alliance was and is above all an instrument of American policy in Europe. Precisely it maintains American leadership in Europe and indirectly for preserving American security and welfare. In other words, fighting there rather than here is the US ideology.

“People of my generation, [I (Marc Pierini) am marginally younger than Trump], can only be mesmerized by trump’s propensity to undermine the Western alliance. He attacks the EU for the first time since European countries started economic and political cooperation nearly 70 years ago (including by launching a trade war against the EU). More generally trump adopts a stance against America’s allies closer to the Kremlin’s narrative than what U.S. presidents have consistently said since World War II.”

“Is Trump Wrong About NATO?” Carnegie Europe, Judy Dempsey.

Jamie: He (trump) is kind of right on immigration. When Joel Garreau wrote “300 Million and Counting,” we exchanged a couple of emails. Then, the US replacement rate was ~2.06. Approximately three years later, replacement rate was 2.0. In 2022, the replacement rate is 1.67. It is safe to say, the US is not over producing and has room. Inevitable is the white population will become a minority in a couple of decades.

“Of the more than 2.1 million encounters along the U.S.-Mexico border through the first 11 months of FY 2022, 1,149,000 did not result in expulsion under Title 42, a dramatic increase from the 671,000 such incidents in FY 2021. For the first 11 months of this fiscal year, 75 percent of arrivals had been from countries other than Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. A sharp increase over the 18 percent seen in FY 2020 and 44 percent in FY 2021. Cubans, Colombians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans are rarely expelled under Title 42. Inthe absence of normal diplomatic with, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, it is nearly impossible to send back nationals of those countries.”

Part of this rush to inhabit the US is due to Republicans babbling about the US having open borders. Repubs have been purposely stating the US borders are open and blaming Biden. Ted Cruz heads the list of “open border” babbling Republicans.

Busing and Flights of Migrants by GOP Gov., migration policy.org.

Jamie: He grew the economy quite well. Trade tax reform worked. He was right about some of China.’

Grew the economy quite well compared to what? Some comps . . .

• GDP growth: Average real GDP growth was roughly the same (2.6 percent) for the first 11 quarters under President Trump (ending September 2019) and for the last 11 quarters of the Obama administration.
• Income: During the last two years of the Obama administration, annual median household income increased $4,800. This is three times more than the $1,400 increase during the first two years of the Trump administration.
• Stock is a poor proxy for the nation’s overall economic well-being. In Trump’s first three years in office, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased almost 50 percent, while over the eight years of the Obama administration, the DJIA increased almost 140 percent.

Did Trump Create or Inherit the Strong Economy?

Jamie: Trade Tax Reform Worked. Trade policy almost always has important distributive effects, and any change in trade policy is a choice to benefit some groups at the expense of others. Yet, overall, when economists have attempted to add up the net effect of Trump’s tariffs on jobs, any gains in importing-competing sectors appear to have been more than offset by losses in industries using imported inputs and face retaliation on their foreign exports.

Did Trump’s tariffs benefit American workers and national security? | Brookings

As far as Dems demonizing Trump supporters (Jamie)? The Dems I know of are not out there vocally challenging anyone to a yelling match over trump. Trump created this stage of boorish behavior and his followers’ line up right behind him. Somone says something stupid, we look at each other and order another beer or bourbon.

So, what is Jamie worried about?

The 2017 Tax Breaks are set to expire in 2016. They were passed under reconciliation. The tax breaks were promised to produce economic growth. Still deficits amount to $1.7 trillion. The only thing permanent about the 2017 Tax Breaks are the corporate tax breaks. The tax breaks for citizens will disappear and pay for the tax breaks to corporations. No economic growth paying for the tax breaks, the tax breaks go away under reconciliation.

The centerpiece of the 2017 tax law was a deep, permanent cut in the corporate tax rate — from 35 percent to 21 percent — and a shift toward a territorial tax system, which exempts certain foreign income of multinational corporations from U.S. tax. At a cost of $1.3 trillion over ten years, the deep cut in the corporate tax rate was the most expensive provision of the 2017 tax law, largely benefiting the most well-off. 

After Decades of Costly, Regressive, and Ineffective Tax Cuts, a New Course Is Needed, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

That does not mean Coporate Taxes can not be changed back. This worries Jamie as well as giving up more personal income to taxes. In his case it is probably little.

Pictures do better than numbers or my descriptions. Hence the cuts, who do they favor, and the impact by income.

If I may and in a conversation, Steve Roth favored taxing the 10 percent upper which is definable. I favored the twenty percentiles as to who should have taxes re-imposed. If such were to be the case. I believe we would find such would pay for the tax breaks on the other 80% (my calculation on my proposal). For sure Steve’s proposal would work.

Looking at the Trump 2017 Tax Breaks and Extension of them, – Angry Bear.

The Pernicious Myth of Meritocracy (Why American capitalism is so rotten, Part 5.