Thursday , April 17 2025
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Here’s why inflation may not increase.

Summary:
The system we are on, floating exchange rates, tend to mitigate tariff-driven price increases 

Topics:
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The system we are on, floating exchange rates, tend to mitigate tariff-driven price increases 
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

30 comments

  1. Mike thoughts on spiking yields? Big foreign players selling bonds in response to Trump Tariffs?

    • 4.19% is still well below the Fed’s policy rate. 3.84% was too low for right now. Yields got ahead of themselves.

  2. 12 minutes in and you have not even explained anything regarding the title of your video. Wow.

  3. Arches yeah! Do your due diligence to find out of the way camping spots- its worth it…

    I'm a tradesman/artisan/maker in southern Colorado; people are telling me to raise my rates from $50+/- to $75 this year.

  4. Sorry you were not able to come out and see us today. RFK was in Salt Lake City today!

  5. @backyard_birds

    Oil down, inflation down.

  6. @financeeconomics1057

    These are the best days. Volatility is a positive.

    Most people just can't see it.

    • It’s good if you have new money and the actual earnings of the businesses is stable. In that case it’s a cheaper price for a valuable business. The problem is a recession makes all of that different.

  7. I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 385K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% annually in dividend returns. any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks will be appreciated.

    • @SandrineKouassir

      As a beginner, it is essential that you have a mentor to help you stay accountable. In my case, Marc Andrew Zabicki has guided me for years and I highly recommend him. I focus on him. To be honest, I'm almost hesitant to let someone take charge of growing my finances, but I'm so glad I did. ❤

    • I went from $176,000 in debt with zero savings or retirement, a year later fully debt-free and over $1M net worth. I know that doesn't SOUND like a lot, but I'm incredibly proud of it. Now I'm fast-tracking my wealth building (investing $50,000 monthly) and don't owe a dime to anyone. I'm especially grateful to Adviser Marc Andrew Zabicki, for his expertise and exposure to different areas of the market.

    • @SandrineKouassir

      well i am at $2.5 mil. Biggest positions PLTR, TSLA, SCHD, NVDA,BTC and now looking to build up DRGO alongside finding quality value & growth stocks to buy. I got $54k divs last time in taxable divs. Q2 taxable divs this year was $16,526 . don't sell when the market is down..thanks to diversification and portfolio restructuring using growth companies, Entry and exit orders are chosen by my advisor.

    • Marc Andrew Zabicki has made an incredible impact on the trading community. His guidance and expertise have helped countless individuals achieve their financial goals and his contributions have set a new standard for excellence in the industry. We're truly grateful for his dedication and hard work, and I'm sure his legacy will continue to inspire others for years to come.

    • how would you suggest i enter the crypto market? I am also looking at studying pro traders and using their strategy rather than investing myself . whats your take on this? How can i reach him please?

  8. Going to be deflation instead of inflation…

  9. The exchange adjustment theory I'm familiar with, there are fans of the DBCTF tax replacement for corporation tax that relies on this (also utilsed under the Paul Ryan plan). I'm not toally convinced but it's probably better than the status quo.
    The sheer chaos of the recent tariff announcements has meant the $ kept falling, but assuming there are deals made towards something less extreme ie the universal 10% base the markets initially rallied on, the $ could indeed adjust upwards and we would end up with a pseudo DBCTF, though Trump would be utilsing corporation tax cuts as a proxy for it's discounting expenses mechanism.

  10. What is the point of tariffs if they don’t raise prices? I thought the entire problem is that imports are cheaper than domestic production to begin with.

  11. The dollar is going down and treasury yields are going up. Trump has destroyed good will and created a world of enemies. De-dollarization will accelerate.

  12. There will be short to medium term inflation, exchange rate adjustments won’t happen that quickly and flow through into consumer prices that quickly because of hedging by importers

  13. @ahayahshouse5344

    Dear Sir,

    You should stop boxing, it's making you "punchy"…

  14. @eloisewiehman7326

    Great and uncomplicated way to explain it for economic dummies. Thanks so much

  15. ❤thank you Mike for everything you shared and taught. Really much appreciated them.

  16. Mike, would you mind sharing and updating your view on gold. Are you still holding short position? Thanks much in advance

  17. Always solid thank you

  18. mike tariffs these days aren't about mercantilism of the 18th century – it's about stopping multi national corps from taking advantage of cheap labor and STILL having access to the us consumer market – they get their cake and eat it too with free trade. Meanwhile the US average worker is gutted out while other countries grow. And that's exactly what we see the past 30 years – foreign nations growing while the heart of the US is stagnant with the wealth divide even more pronounced in the US.

  19. I would encourage you to watch the Uneducated Economist when it comes to why nothing has changed but everything has changed. They’re using, when I say they I mean the Fed, mainstream propaganda and political influence to cause inflation. They want inflation to get their monetary back after hitting the lower bound years back. It’s all in the Fed speeches and papers. They want inflation to raise the neutral interest rates and they do this through inflation expectations. How do you raise inflation expectations? Propaganda. It’s all by design

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