The Angry Bear

Real wages unchanged, real aggregate payrolls rose slightly in April Consumer inflation for April was +0.3%, the lowest monthly advance since last August. The number was helped by a big decline in energy prices, down -2.7% for the month, and also by used cars, down -0.4% for the month. In this post I’ll report on the impact on wages. I’ll put up a separate post with more general comments later. Since nominal nonsupervisory wages rose 0.4% in...

Steve Schmidt has created his own Substack to tell his story. It is about lying, lying in politics, lying as a politician, and his lying. It is one hell of an interesting read, I only put part of this up. You can see the rest “here” or clicking on part of the title. Steve Schmidt’s Substack, “The Warning” Intro; “Steve Schmidt is a strategic advisor, who has counseled Heads of State, CEOs, leading athletes, major corporations, academic...

Q1 Senior Loan Officer Survey: strong demand for loans, but accommodation ends The Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q1 was published yesterday (May 10), generally covering the supply of, and demand for, bank credit. It has two components that qualify as long leading indicators for the economy, as they have typically turned about one year before the onset of a recession over their 30+ year history. First, the below graph is of the percentage of...

It’s hard to know why things shake out in Congress the way they do.  Why hasn’t there been agreement on a climate bill?  Why hasn’t a compromise been reached on a child tax credit?  Why not better preparation for the next pandemic, or even for the next wave of this pandemic?  From the outside it’s hard to say, but I am inclined to think that Schumer and Biden both bear considerable responsibility for these failures. A deeply disturbing article by...

From Reuters: U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday he is worried that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not have a way out of the Ukraine war, and Biden said he was trying to figure out what to do about that.. . .Biden said Putin is a very calculating man and the problem he worries about now is that the Russian leader “doesn’t have a way out right now, and I’m trying to figure out what we do about that.” As far as I can tell, Biden has...

A “Big Picture” look at housing at Seeking Alpha; plus an in-depth look at existing home sales and inventory I have one of my periodic “Big Picture” looks at housing up over at Seeking Alpha. One economic relationship – whether sales lead inventory for existing homes as well as new ones – has been extremely difficult to nail down, since for the past number of years the NAR has only allowed FRED to post the last one year of its data.  Well,...

The Passing Of Axel Leijonhufvud  On May 5, Swedish economist Axel Leijonhufvud died at age 88. I only met him once when he attended a seminar I gave in Trento, Italy a decade ago. I always admired his work and felt lots of sympathy with it, and I think he liked what I had to say at least in my seminar that day.  He was someone who stood outside of orthodoxy while not being clearly tied to any particular school of economic thought.  However, he...

RJS, Focus on Fracking __________ Summary: Natural gas price hits 164 month high after doubling in 2 months; SPR at a 1058 week low, total US oil supplies at a 746 week low; distillates supplies at a 729 week low, total oil + products inventories at a 711 week low, gasoline imports at a 8 month high; natural gas rigs at a 31 month high.. ___________ Natural gas prices hit 164 month high after doubling in 2 months Oil prices rose for...

In April 2019, “I finished an article entitled A Woman’s Right to Safe Healthcare Outcomes.” I spent six weeks reading about this for a group which asked me to write on it from a male’s perspective. It took me all of that time. I could have doubled the size of the article I wanted to write to get the information out there. There was much to be said about the dangers women face becoming pregnant and giving birth. What prompted the resurrection of...