The Angry Bear

June retail sales decline after taking inflation into account, but overall pandemic gains “stick” As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it gives us so much information about the consumer economy.  The news for June was mixed. Nominally retail sales were up +0.6% for the month. But after taking into account consumer inflation, real retail sales declined -0.3%. Still, nominal retail sales are up over 18% since just...

DUC well report for June, Focus on Fracking, RJS Monday of this past week saw the release of the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report for July, which includes the EIA’s June data for drilled but uncompleted (DUC) oil and gas wells in the 7 most productive shale regions….that data showed a decrease in uncompleted wells nationally for the 13th month in a row, as both completions of drilled wells and drilling of new wells increased, but remained below...

Socially Ambivalent Labour Time VI: TSV part 3, chapter 21: “Our pamphleteer overlooks two things” Although Marx discussed socially necessary labour time in chapters 4, 8, 9, 16, 17, and 20, he didn’t mention it in chapter 21 where he discussed the 1821 pamphlet, The Source and Remedy of the National Difficulties by Charles Wentworth Dilke. Marx’s reticence here is notable if only for the fact that the pamphlet proposed a method for calculating a...

Industrial production slightly positive overall, but with negative revisions Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. It is the single datum that most frequently coincides with the NBER determination of the beginning and end of recessions. Production increased 0.4% in June, but May’s result was reduced by -0.2%. The manufacturing component declined less than -0.1%, and May’s result was also reduced, by -0.3%. As a result,...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Coronavirus dashboard for July 19: The UK as Delta wave trailblazer for the US An initial note: I am on vacation this week, so posting is likely to be sporadic. I’ll still hit the important data.Now that the Delta wave is well and truly here in the US, let’s compare it with the UK experience, […] The post The UK as Delta wave trailblazer for the US appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]MarketWatch 666, R.J.S., June Producer Price Index Sets YoY Records for Final Demand and Intermediate Services; 46 year High for Prices of Intermediate Goods The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 1.0% in June, as prices for finished wholesale goods rose 1.2% while margins of final services providers rose 0.8%…that increase followed a […] The post June Producer Price Index for Final Demand and...

Imagine that in the 1970s you bought a plat along the coast in Florida that was on a large pile of sand that was basically at sea level upon which you planned to build a four-hundred unit, twelve story tall, condominium complex. This complex was to rest on a slab of concrete that rested atop the pile of sand and a lot of long pilings driven deep into the pile (but not to bedrock). If you will, the building(s) were to rest atop a concrete many-legged...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for July 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. All timeframes continue positive, but the renewed outbreak of COVID – indeed, its uncontrolled exponential spread – is the proverbial elephant in the room, and is quite likely to Bigfoot the entire forecast and nowcast. And with the many crosscurrents, the effect on the economy is fiendishly difficult to forecast....

Bad News About Iran And Nuclear Deal  In yesterday’s Washington Post it was reported that there will be no further negotiations between the US and Iran (and other parties) in Vienna over the US and Iran rejoining the JCPOA nuclear agreement that Iran had been adhering to when Donald Trump withdrew the US from it in 2018, then reimposing economic sanctions on Iran, with Iran then starting to violate the agreement in various ways starting a year...

Steve Hutkins at Save the Post Office, “Reply to the USPS: How the new service standards will cause geographic discrimination” The Postal Service’s plan to reduce service standards is now being reviewed by the Postal Regulatory Commission for an Advisory Opinion. On Friday, June 25, the Postal Service and several of the intervenors in the case submitted their Reply Briefs. (You can find the briefs and replies here.) Below is my Reply Brief....