The Angry Bear

I bookmarked a prediction about the coronavirus by supply-sider Scott Grannis one year ago …  As I mention from time to time, I read a number of economic observers with whose opinions I usually strongly disagree, partly because it is good to consider other points of view, and partly because some compile excellent and interesting data, even if I disagree with their conclusions about what the data means. The “Calafia Beach Pundit,” Scott Grannis,...

American plutocracy in two simple graphs; plus, when will wage growth bottom? The JOLTS report for February comes out later this morning; I may post on it later or tomorrow. In the meantime, here are updates on several graphs I used to run during the last expansion in order to examine how shared out (or not) economic growth was. First, here is a graph comparing corporate profits adjusted for inflation, and total nonsupervisory wages, also...

Tags: open thread

The “Work Ethic” Hoax The story has been told that Martin Luther invented the doctrine of the “calling” and that John Calvin (“my friends call me Jean”) intensified it with his doctrine of predestination. Subsequent pastoral literature softened the predestination blow with the Protestant ethic that working hard and succeeding would show that you were one of the elect. Max Weber told that story.  It was, of course, a fable. But that is beside...

Blockbuster March jobs report, but still a long way to go  –HEADLINES: +916,000 million jobs added. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of 609,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.U3 unemployment rate declined 0.2% to 6.0%, compared with the January 2020 low of 3.5%, and the April 2020 high of 14.8%.U6 underemployment rate declined 0.4 to 10.7%, compared with...

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for March 29 – April 2 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. One fairly unique service I think I provide is not just forecasting the next few months, but into the next year as well. So in the second half of last year I was writing about how all of the indicators were lining up for strong growth in 2021 if the pandemic could be brought under control. Now I am beginning to...

The Death Of Yeshua bar Yosef Or if you prefer, “bin Miriam,” although no way he would have ever been called that in his life, but near as I know “Yeshua bar Yosef” (“Jesus son of Joseph”) was probably how he was most frequently identified in real life in the Aramaic language he mostly operated in, his mother tongue. It has been reported that he knew Hebrew, then strictly a liturgical language, given the reports of him at age 12 discoursing...

Imagine four or more Sears and Roebuck catalog — and much, much more — type web pages; one of which belongs to the USPS, Amazon gets to keep one, if they can show copyright. Let’s call these Web Pages Amazon, Nile, Mississippi, and Danube, with Mississippi being assigned to the USPS. Each of these Four or More Rivers of commerce would have large numbers of manufacturers/producers as paid subscribers; we are, after all, now in the post retail, post...

Commenter RJS at MarketWatch 666 Construction Spending Fell 0.8% in February after January & December Figures Were Revised Higher The Census Bureau’s report on February construction spending (pdf) reported that “Construction spending during February 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,516.9 billion, 0.8 percent (±0.7 percent) below the revised January estimate of $1,529.0 billion. The February figure is 5.3...

Nick Rowe was looking for the role of money in the Heuristic Macro Model, which is often used to introduce students to Trade economics. The problem he discovered is that there is only a role for money if there is friction in the model, and therefore a two-household (or household-firm or firm-firm) model makes money if not superfluous, then at least a poor substitute to direct barter. Following is a “finger exercise” for introductory economics the...