The Angry Bear

May retail sales decline, but 10%+ gain in retail sales since the onset of the pandemic remains intact [Note: I’ll comment on industrial production in a separate post later]I feel like I could simply repost my retail sales piece from one month ago, because the story is the same: at first glance, May’s retail sales report, like April’s, looks like a big miss, as sales declined -1.3% nominally, and after adjusting for inflation, declined...

The Cornwall Paradox  The County of Cornwall has been in the news as the site of the G7 summit, just ended. In today’s Washington Post an article “In Cornwall, a jarring contrast of power and poverty,” by Karla Adam and Loveday Morris, a paradox of this visit is highlighted and brought out, indeed, that Cornwall is one of the poorest places in Great Britain, indeed in Northern Europe more generally, but that it is drawing much attention and some...

Record High Job Quitting; Record Low Layoff Rate, MarketWatch 666, AB Commenter and Blogger RJS The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for April from the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated seasonally adjusted job openings jumped by by 998,000, from 8,288,000 in March to 9,286,000 job openings in April, after March’s record job openings were revised 165,000 higher, from 8,123,000 to 8,288,000 . . . April’s jobs openings...

The Zhou Enlai Paradox A bit over a half century ago when Henry Kissinger was organizing Richard Nixon’s visit to China, he was largely interacting on this matter with Zhou Enlai (Chou-Enlai in Wade-Giles transliteration). He reported that during their negotiations he asked Zhou what he thought of the French Revolution.  Zhou replied that “It is too soon to tell.” This has since been taken as deep insight by Zhou on a deep historical issue, which...

Commenter and blogger, Professor Joel Eissenberg, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Saint Louis University. Introduction: “A group of clinicians and researchers is petitioning the FDA to delay fully approval of any COVID-19 vaccines before clinical trials have been completed, calling the notion of approval to stimulate vaccination rates ‘backward logic.’ The group, led by Linda Wastila, BSPharm, MSPH, PhD, professor of...

 – by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for June 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Despite the spike in consumer prices in May, long term interest rates like in mortgages declined, largely taking back the increase that occurred earlier this year. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the moment, and bring me a penny or two for my efforts....

The spike in inflation is not a concern – yet By now you’ve probably already read a fair amount of commentary on yesterday’s consumer inflation report for May. I’m going to cut to the chase as to my take right off the bat: 1. The primary driver of this inflationary spike is supply bottlenecks rather than increased demand.2. The inflationary spike has wiped out any “real” wage gains during the past 10 months.3. The inflationary spike is not...

What are we talking about here? Federal Reserve is taking an initial step towards launching its own virtual currency. The move is disturbing to banks as it gives millions of low-income Americans access to the financial system and fortifies the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. The rise of private cryptocurrencies is motivating the Fed to start considering a digital dollar to be used alongside the traditional paper currency. The...

I am wondering about Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data. The reason is that I am interested in the extremely record high job vacancy rate of 6%, the moderately high unemployment rate of 5.8% and the moderately high hiring rate of 4.2% of employment in April (last month of data available). There are reports of firms having trouble finding workers, including the results of systematic surveys. Republican governors have decided to...