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The Angry Bear

March housing, latest weekly jobless claims slightly less apocalyptic than expected

March housing, latest weekly jobless claims slightly less apocalyptic than expected If I were President, the one industry in the economy that I would be actively trying to prop up is housing. As I have repeated constantly over the past 10+ years, housing is a long leading indicator. The permit that is issued today means a house that is built over the next 4 to 12 months, means contractors being employed, mortgages being issued, and furnishings,...

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Epidemiologists, government failure, and COVID-19

Jason Brennan has a new post up doubling down on his earlier criticism of epidemiologists and government policy in response to the COVID crisis.  I responded to his earlier blog posts here.  I am still not convinced, but there are useful lessons to be learned from going through his argument. Brennan continues to claim that epidemiologists produced bad statistical analysis, and that we should not take their advice seriously (all bolding is mine): I’ve been...

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Lansing, Michigan Protestor

[embedded content]James Smith protesting the protestors who are practicing unsafe methods of protest. They congregate in close proximity to others, failed to wear facemasks, threatened those people who were involved in the protest, and by their actions purposely prevented people and healthcare workers from having access to Sparrrow hospital in Lansing, Michigan. Their right to protest shall not impede upon the rights of others to safety....

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World Chess Championship Ends

World Chess Championship Ends The two best chess players in the world faced off this month, undeterred by lockdowns, travel bans or any other restrictions.  They never had to see each other either. It helped that they were both computer programs.  The former champ, Stockfish, is the strongest of the traditional type of program, designed by humans and invested with all the fine points of judgment the best human players can translate into code.  Because...

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Coronavirus dashboard for April 16: if new infections have passed peak, what pace of decline can we expect?

Coronavirus dashboard for April 16: if new infections have passed peak, what pace of decline can we expect? Here is the update through yesterday (April 15). Significant new items are in italics In the US, the only significant development yesterday was that deaths rose to yet another new daily high, while infections continued to be below last week’s peak. Since I want to look ahead, now that lockdowns appear to have worked and the number of new daily...

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What does the COVID-19 epidemic teach us about the role of government?

What lessons should we draw about the role of government from the COVID-19 epidemic?  I want to address this question in a few posts.  I’m going to start by examining a blog post by the libertarian philosopher Jason Brennan.  Brennan makes the following claims: Many medical journals published misleading papers based on bad statistical analysis and incomplete data; in particular the case fatality rate may have been overestimated because the total number of...

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The Democratic COVID-19 Testing Strategy

Senator Patty Murray has released a Democratic proposal to increase our capacity to test for the coronavirus.  The report quite rightly emphasizes that expanded testing is critical for containing the epidemic and re-opening the economy.  It criticizes the Trump administration for it’s failure to recognize the need for extensive testing: Democrats demand a clear, detailed plan to rapidly scale and optimize COVID-19 testing in the United  States. This plan...

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Michigan and lockdown politics

(Dan here…simultaneous and probably related is the declining testing being done currently, and the federal lack of keeping track of nursing home and other long term care facilities deaths, as this group double downs on the “re-0pening” without precaution.) Washington Post reports: If all roads in Michigan lead to the state capitol, conservative protesters on Wednesday made sure they were closed. For miles, thousands of drivers clogged the streets to...

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A BEAR STORY FOR JASON … WITH HOPE

by Dale Coberly A BEAR STORY FOR JASON WITH HOPE [Jason is a “Libertarian”  who recently tortured his brain to produce a proof that we have no obligation to help anyone else, because they are probably bad or will sometime, if given the chance, do something bad.] A long time ago I saw a film clip.  I don’t know who shot it or how. A hero, but not the hero of this story.  The film opens on a mountainside where a bear has found a dead elk, or killed it...

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