The Angry Bear

I am going to write more on the topic of Covid 19 vaccines. I will argue that it would be better to give second (booster) shots only when vaccine supplies are plentiful. I think that so long as the vaccine is in short supply, people should be given one dose. I criticise the current policy of withholding vaccine to make sure that everyone who gets a first dose gets the scheduled booster either 3 weeks later (for the Pfizer vaccine) or 4 weeks later...

Bubble Bubble Toil And Trouble?  Or maybe not. So recently there has been a lot of buzz that we may be seeing a variety of speculative bubbles in the US and indeed world economy.  Many asset markets have risen in the last few months, with several of them either reaching new highs or getting close to doing so, with some of them rising very sharply quite recently, with all of this making many eyebrows rise to noticeable degrees and mumble about...

The 2004-2020 political red/blue shift: the intersection of geography, the economy, and ethnic migration It’s a very slow, holiday-shortened economic week. We’ll get new home sales, plus personal income and spending Wednesday, and jobless claims as usual Thursday. In the meantime, here is something I found revealing. It’s a map, created by Nathan Jordan,  a college student from Alabama (I think), showing the county-level change in Presidential...

Tags: open thread

 by New Deal democrat  Weekly Indicators for December 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Even with deterioration in a few noteworthy items like new jobless claims, the overall tenor of both the forecast and the nowcast remains positive. As usual, clicking over and reading should be educational for you and remunerative for me to the tune of a penny or two in my pocket....

Housing permits and starts for November: yet more evidence of an economy primed for takeoff in 2021 If there was bad news yesterday in the further increase of initial jobless claims, there was also good news in the 10+ year highs in new housing permits. Here’s the graph of permits (blue), single-family permits (red, right scale), and housing starts (green): Not only total permits but also the much less noisy single-family permits made...

by Joseph Joyce Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets amid the Pandemic Among the most notable economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic has been the turnaround in capital flows to emerging markets. A sudden reversal in portfolio flows of over $100 billion to these countries in March has been offset by a surge of capital this fall. But many of these countries have accumulated debt burdens that will affect their ability to recover...

Conservationists were disappointed on Tuesday when the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service announced it would not recommend putting the monarch on the threatened species list. It’s not that the species isn’t edging to extinction—the monarch meets criteria to be considered threatened, the service admits. But there are “higher priority listing actions.” Rachael Bale, ANIMALS Executive Editor, National Geographic. The Big Question is: Why IS The U.S....

November retail sales poor m/m, but trend still good Retail sales for November clocked in at -1.1% without adjusting for inflation. After inflation, the number was -1.3% m/m.While the seasonally adjusted headline was certainly bad, this year tracking the unadjusted numbers is also important due to the havoc COVID is playing with consumption and employment. So the below graph shows the m/m changes over the past 5 years of both the adjusted (blue)...

Jobless claims negative trend reversal likely; expect a poor December jobs number This week new jobless claims rose further from their recent pandemic lows, while continuing claims, seasonally adjusted, made a new pandemic low. Nevertheless, I strongly suspect the downward trend has broken.On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 21,335 to 935,138. Seasonally adjusted claims, on the other hand, rose by 23,000 to 885,000. The 4-week...