The Angry Bear

June retail sales: some actual good news; the entirety of the pandemic decline has been reversed Retail sales are the third report for June out of the four main coincident indicators that show whether the economy is in recession or expansion. And they were the third that grew again for the month. In fact, in real, inflation-adjusted terms they were higher than in February, the last month before the coronavirus pandemic hit: They were also only 0.4%...

Given the state of the race, people are starting to ask what this would mean for the future of progressive politics in America. James Kwak is gloomy: I think the policy solutions are obvious . . . The problem, of course, is the politics—not just President Trump and the Republicans, but a Democratic Party controlled by its conservative wing, defined primarily by its insistence on fiscal responsibility, and terrified of doing anything that anyone might call...

Industrial production rebounds, but will manufacturing employment continue to do so? Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. The NBER almost always identifies month of the end, and frequently the beginning, of recessions based on the top and bottom of this statistic. This morning it was reported to have risen for the second month in a row in June. Let’s take a little deeper look. First, here’s the graph of both overall (blue) and...

As posted by Anne: #Coronavirus data has been removed from the U.S. CDC website after the Trump administration’s order to re-route hospital data directly to the administration. Missing are current inpatient and intensive care bed occupancy, health worker staffing, and PPE supply status. pic.twitter.com/mwBjw4QE7d — CGTN America (@cgtnamerica) July 16, 2020 Pope Francis “All dictatorships, all of them, began like this, by adulterating communication, by...

More Likely Bad Economic Forecasting: This Time From OECD And CBO That would be the quintessential establishment and boringly conventional Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, the Paris-based “rich nations'” entity that grew out of the Marshall Plan and has a reputation for excellent data, and also the Congressional Budget Office, generally regarded as bipartisan and highly professional. So I saw their forecasts of US economic...

A Framework for Coronavirus Policy There are two general ways to reduce the transmission of the virus.  One is “engineering”, changing the physical environment, the other is “social”, changing behavior to keep people distant from each other.  Under engineering, we can include not only physical partitions, UV lighting and ventilation, but also mask-wearing and other PPE.  I know, there is a very large behavioral component to masking, but I want to focus...

Blacks Should Be More Afraid Of Other Blacks Than Cops Rudy Giuliani joined Fox and Friends to trash Mayor de Blasio and decree that Black men should be more afraid of other Black men than of his cop buddies murdering black men with racist intent. Echoing Trump’s “law and order” idiocy and hatred of the Black Lives Movement, Giuliani gave his unfettered support to law enforcement, and decreed that he has always been the true savior of New York. Me: What...

Never thought of myself as a global traveler. My kids kind of mentioned it as I was always bringing something home for them and my wife. I did ship home a Tang Dynasty tomb horse and drummer from Hollywood Road in Hong Kong.  Can not say I am an Indiana Jones type taking artifacts which belong in museums. After working a 10-12 hour shift with the Thai, we would go to dinner, eat Thai and relax. This was one of the places we would go to, which was a short...

Coronavirus dashboard for July 14: A few US States are containing the coronavirus Headlines for the US: Total infections: 3,364,704 7 day average: 60,997 Total deaths: 135,615 7 day average: 780 We all know that taken as a whole, the US is failing abysmally in controlling the coronavirus. At least 13 States most notably including California are “re-closing” at least in part.  In the last week, deaths, which had continued to decline despite the renewed...