The Angry Bear

Michigan did not miss out on all the fun on Elector’s Day this last Monday. I was listening to Stephen Miller talk (Fox New Telecast) about sending Alternative Electors to state capitals to vote for a “trump” in place of Biden President as selected by the popular vote in each state. Sending alternative electors did not include every state in the union and just the ones which had voted with mail-in ballots. And illegally according to the claims of...

While briefly discussing (accessible link below for addition information) this decision, keep in mind this is a big deal in lowering the costs of pharmaceuticals as it goes right to the source of some of the excess takings involved in the distribution of drugs from manufacturer to drug stores. December 10, 2020: the Supreme Court handed a win to states and broadened the path for state health care cost control efforts. In Rutledge v. Pharmaceutical...

Industrial production continues to progress, at a slower rate, in November I call industrial production the “King of Coincident Indicators” because it is the metric that is usually the decisive one for the NBER in determining when recessions and expansions begin and end. November’s report continues the trend of a strong rebound in production, as overall production increased 0.4% from October, and manufacturing 0.8%. Total production has...

by Joseph Joyce Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets amid the Pandemic Among the most notable economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic has been the turnaround in capital flows to emerging markets. A sudden reversal in portfolio flows of over $100 billion to these countries in March has been offset by a surge of capital this fall. But many of these countries have accumulated debt burdens that will affect their ability to recover from...

So Far the efficacy data has been presented. As reported in the press earlier, the vaccine is roughly 95% effective, that is roughly 95% of people who got Covid 19 during the trial were participants who received the placebo. Importantly, the null hypothesis that just one dose is just as good as two was not rejected. The test of this null had extremely low power as almost all participants received both doses, so basically this means cases less than...

Apparently there are proposals circulating to pay people to get vaccinated. (Summary here.) The pro/con story is familiar enough. Monetary incentives might increase the uptake rate; but they might also increase suspicion and backfire, or at least not be very effective. Given the large cost involved – the number cited in the linked article is $1,000, which could cost well over a hundred billion depending on eligibility – a small increase in...

I’m fairly certain I picked it up this past Tuesday.   Wednesday night I had a slight throat-clearing cough.  Not sure if this was covid related or not.  Saturday I had a fever of 100.5, along with some achiness.  I got tested on Saturday and received the positive test result on Sunday.  Last night was a bit worse than the night before.  I had chills and aches.  When I am not sick I am usually more or less pain free; when I get a cold or flu all my...

The GOP has crossed the Rubicon  – by New Deal democrat In the Roman Republic, military leaders automatically lost their legal authority to command at the Rubicon River in northern Italy. When Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon with his legions, it was an act of war against the Republic. With the filing of their  Amicus brief in the Supreme Court this past week, the GOP as represented by their Congressional delegation similarly finally broke...

November inflation tame again, with the economy weak, but real wage gains strong Consumer prices rose 0.2% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, but declined -0.1% unadjusted: As shown in the above graph, a November decline in prices is typical. This year’s decline was less than either of the past two years.On a YoY basis, consumer prices were only up 1.2%: For the past 40 years, recessions had typically happened when CPI less...

Prof. Peter Dorman of Evergreen College writes at EconoSpeak and portrays Matt Yglesias’s retrospective on how the healthcare establishment failed the public when passing information on facemasks, hand-washing, distancing, etc., and how Covid is transmitted. The direct result of not following these practices or casting doubt upon them is an elevation of Covid cases which strains the capacity and logistics of healthcare facilities, the equipment...