The Angry Bear

Coronavirus dashboard for June 17: the second wave of the tsunami comes ashore As of yesterday, there were 2,137,731 total documented coronavirus infections in the US. Total known deaths were 116,963. As I have stated several times in the past month, I believe that coronavirus infections and deaths will wax and wane around the April-May plateau of roughly 20-25,000 new daily infections and 500-2000 daily deaths, at least as long as Trump remains...

Might There Be A V-Shaped Economic Recovery After All? Maybe. This is a matter where if it happens, I shall be proven wrong.  I have mostly emphasized how much uncertainty and lack of knowledge we face about the pandemic as well as the economy in this situation, and have as a result largely stayed away from making specific or definite forecasts on those matters.  However, here and in other places on the internet, I have made a lot of forecasts that the...

The Coronavirus Recession may already (technically) have ended: sales and production both increased in May  – by New Deal democrat Sales and production are two of the four things that economists look for in gauging whether the economy is in expansion or recession, and this morning both of them – retail sales and industrial production – were released for May. So it’s true: as defined by the NBER, the Coronavirus Recession may have only lasted two months,...

This article by Ezra Klein is excellent.  I can’t do it justice in a blog post, but here is a bit: This is the often neglected heart of nonviolence: It is a strategic confrontation with other human beings. It takes as self-evident that we must continue to live in fellowship with one another. As such, it puts changing each other’s hearts at the center of political action, and then asks what kind of action is likeliest to bring about that transformation....

After the recent market rebound the S&P 500 valuation has risen from below my estimated fair value to just over the top of the fair value band. It is important to remember that much of the rebound in the S&P PE  is due to weaker earnings.  In the second quarter earnings are falling at double digit rates. But if second quarter real GDP is falling at a 40% to 50% rate earnings estimated are still too high. Wall Street says do, not fight the Fed. ...

Just in case, you missed it,  Medicaid Eligibility Is Based On Current Monthly Income. Still do not understand? Let me try a different way to explain it, Medicaid Eligibility Is Based On Current Monthly Income. There, I have said it three times –  once in the title and twice in the beginning text of this post. And yet people will not apply because it is something others do or they are easily discouraged or the information is hidden. If you are laid off...

Abbreviated Coronavirus dashboard for June 15: tracking the four horsemen of the reopening apocalypse – by New Deal democratThere’s no big economic news out today. So let me follow up on my post Friday about the cost of reopening recklessly coming due. Here is the graph from 91.divoc.com of the 10 States with the highest per capita infection rate over the past 7 days ending Saturday: With the exception of rapidly declining Maryland, the focus has almost...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for June 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The short leading indicators have continued to improve, from awful, to less awful, to merely really bad. But that the NASDAQ briefly made a new high last week, while the S&P was only 5% from one, while the coronavirus pandemic rages on, was simply insane. As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the moment on the...