The Angry Bear

Equivalence by Ken Melvin These two things are not the same. Giving a woman the right of choice doesn’t deny others that right of choice; makes no imposition on the rights of others. Denying a woman the right of choice imposes the will of others upon her. When is it lawful for some members of a society to impose their will upon others? What right has the State to impose its will upon its citizens? When it is the writ of law. A State can declare acts to...

Kind of a big deal because Oklahomans rejected Trunp’s Medicaid and Republican block grant-program which would be more vulnerable to cuts of Federal funding.  It is unfortunate Oklahoma did not get on board with the ACA Medicaid expansion as 100% of the costs of the Medicaid expansion from 2014 – 2016 and 90% there after. I could never understand the cold-hearted logic of states in not expanding Medicaid. Much of the costs of expanding Medicaid now would...

Coronavirus dashboard for June 29: renewed exponential growth in infections, decline in deaths has stalled Total US infections: 2,549,069,  42,161 in last day Total US deaths: 125,803,  273 in last day Here is the regional breakdown of the 7 day average of new cases per capita: There is renewed exponential growth in the South and West. The Midwest also is beginning to look bad. Also, here is some more evidence that, when you recklessly reopen, and...

(Dan here…David offers a different sort of presentation from the normal for AB. Interesting?…) I’m going on vacation for a few weeks, so I am interrupting my normal blogging for something different. (I’m not sure if you — or anyone — is interested in my Marshall 2020 Project posts, but I’m doing it for myself — and its a good distraction from every day crazy ? Anyways… I’d love to answer your questions about coronavirus, elections, jobs, trade, the...

The US Presidential election as forecast by State polling: tending towards a Biden blowout? Last week I posted a projection of the Electoral College vote based solely on State rather than national polls (since after all that is how the College operates) that have been reported in the last 30 days. There has been extensive polling in the past week, so I have updated the map. Here’s how it works: – States where the race is closer than 3% are shown as...

Differences by Ken Melvin … He said I have no opinion about this And I have no opinion about that Asked an Honors History Class what they thought was the most important issue facing America. In an earlier period, Patrick, a kid from Africa, responded, “our differences.” In a later period, a black female, in a plaintive voice, responded, “we are different.” Indeed. We are a world of people with many differences: different politics, different religions, …...

Coronavirus dashboard for June 27: infections -> hospitalizations -> deaths Total US infections: 2,480,786,  44,373 new cases Total US deaths: 125,120,  619 new deathsA quandary over the past month has been why deaths declined so much more than new cases, while cases were declining; and more recently why deaths have continued to decline in the face of soaring new infections.Is it because of better treatments? Changing demographics – e.g., fewer...

Via the Boston Globe  comes the consideration of boundary problems this pandemic poses between US states. Worth a discussion. Also, on the world stage, the EU and other countries consider relaxing travel restrictions from ‘safe’ countries, the US not among them. Visitor quarantines may seem like a smart intervention to keep the virus from crossing state lines. Symptoms can take up to 14 days to appear after someone is infected, and research suggests...

All 4 coincident indicators of recession improved in May vs. April With this morning’s release of personal income and spending, we now have all 4 coincident indicators for May that the NBER uses to determine whether the economy is in a recession or recovery/expansion. And all 4 improved from their “most horrible” readings in April. A recession is a generalized downturn in production, employment, sales, and income. The “income” metric that the NBER uses...