The Angry Bear

There is another version to this which I may get into in the comments section. CDS were not known at the time to be dangerous investments by Wall Street Banks. Besides Long Term Capital, AIG was offering CDS insuring other CDS. The problem arose when AIG’s credit default swaps did not call for collateral to be paid in full due to market changes. “In most cases, the agreement said that the collateral was owed only if market changes exceeded a certain...

 – by New Deal democrat AB: July 3rd, NDd mentioned he would review the comparison between the Household and the Establishment Survey Reports today. He had initially look at the comparison July 3. In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing. In particular:  Last month I wrote that “There is a common thread in the...

Biden has been slightly behind Trump in the polls for months.  Still, until now it was easy enough to discern a plausible path to victory.  Democratic voters disappointed with Biden would gradually return to the fold as the choice between Biden and Trump became clear.  Memories of inflation would fade.  Trump would say outrageous things.  A few decent breaks and Biden could pull it out. The debate has changed the math.  Biden has been badly hurt...

What got me going to write this was reading a short blurb on The Lever about the economy. The transcript was provided and I read part of it. The content is all about supply chain which I was a part of for 40-something years. I find The Lever script (link below) interesting as it parallels my experience. It may be boring to you. Some background Nineteen seventy-four was a pretty good year for my wife and I. Finished college after three years...

by Tom Walker Econospeak Book proposal: Marx’s Fetters and the Realm of Freedom: a remedial reading — part 2.7 The revolutionary class “The working class is either revolutionary or it is nothing,” Marx wrote to German politician J.B. von Schweitzer and copied “word for word” in a letter to Engels. In The Manifesto of the Communist Party, Marx and Engels wrote “the proletariat alone is a really revolutionary class.” Marx cited that...

 – by New Deal democrat I’ll spare you the introductory graphs this month, but let me reiterate my opening comments from last month: I never used to pay much attention to the ISM non-manufacturing report. That is partly because it only has a 20 year history, and partly because it seems to be more coincident than leading, but because manufacturing has faded so much as a share of the US economy, with at least two false recession signal in the...

In a previous post, I called attention to the decline in the number of medical students who choose pediatrics as a career. Some of the slack can be taken up by nurses and physician assistants, but access to pediatricians is a growing problem.So, too, is access to pediatric care at hospitals:“Pediatric hospitals have been disappearing all across the country. During the decade before the COVID pandemic, data from the American Hospital Association survey...

The following was a comment posted at Crooks and Liars. One respondent suggested that question #5 was a trick question noting that God and not Moses did the deed. AJ Jacobs Hallelujah! Thank you to my creative friends for all these great Biblical math problems. They’ll really help the Oklahoma school superintendent’s goal of inserting biblical content into math and science! I’ve collected a multitude of the problems into one post for ease of...

In Pictures: The 4th of July Through the Years, by Luke Ryan, 4 July 2022, SOFREP Clicking on the SOFREP link will take you to the site where you can get some history and more pictures depicting the 4th of July over the years. As an XMarine Sergeant I am hoping I am allowed to use this picture. Have a safe 4th of July holiday Angry Bears. I will see you on Thursday. ...

 – by New Deal democrat Since tomorrow is the Big Holiday, initial and continuing claims were reported today. [Also, on a programming note, later this morning I will also post about the ISM non-manufacturing survey once it is published, since it now plays an increased role in my forecasting]. Initial claims rose 4,000 last week to 238,000, while the four week average increased 3,250 to 238,500. Continuing claims, with the usual one week delay,...