Lars P. Syll

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A tragedy of statistical theory Methodologists (including myself) can at times exhibit poor judgment about which of their new discoveries, distinctions, and methods are of practical importance, and which are charitably described as ‘academic’ … Weighing the costs and benefits of proposed formalizations is crucial for allocating scarce resources for research and teaching, and can depend heavily on the application … Much benefit can accrue from thinking a...

Är hög statsskuld — verkligen — problemet? .[embedded content] När depressionen drabbade 1930-talets industrivärld visade sig den ekonomiska teorin inte vara till någon större hjälp att komma ur situationen. Den engelske nationalekonomen John Maynard Keynes såg behovet av att utveckla en ny teori som på bröt mot den etablerade sanningen. I The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) presenterade han sitt alternativ. Vad som behövs nu är...

Econometrics — formal modelling that has failed miserably An ongoing concern is that excessive focus on formal modeling and statistics can lead to neglect of practical issues and to overconfidence in formal results … Analysis interpretation depends on contextual judgments about how reality is to be mapped onto the model, and how the formal analysis results are to be mapped back into reality. But overconfidence in formal outputs is only to be expected when...

L’auteur du plus grand scandale financier du XXe siècle s’est éteint, mercredi 14 avril, à 82 ans. Il était parvenu à extorquer des fortunes à ses clients tout en jouant sur la pusillanimité des régulateurs. Bernard Madoff avait développé à partir des années 1960 une société de courtage devenue, au fil des ans, l’une des plus importantes et dynamiques de la Bourse de New York. Mais il avait créé en parallèle une société d’investissement destinée à faire prospérer la fortune...

Stephanie Kelton läxar upp Sveriges finansminister En av USA:s mest uppmärksammade och omdebatterade nationalekonomer, Stephanie Kelton, kritiserar nu finansminister Magdalena Andersson. Enligt Kelton hade regeringen i vårbudgeten kunnat välja att låna ännu mer för att få fart på ekonomin. När finansministern på torsdagen presenterade vårbudgeten pratade hon åter igen om att regeringen har sparat i ladorna och därför kan satsa nu under pandemin. Hon har...

Debunking the trickle-down myth .[embedded content] What we see happen in the US and many other countries is deeply disturbing. The rising inequality is outrageous — not the least since it has to a large extent to do with income and wealth increasingly being concentrated in the hands of a very small and privileged elite. Societies where we allow the inequality of incomes and wealth to increase without bounds, sooner or later implode. The cement that keeps...

The biggest problem in science In 2016, Vox sent out a survey to more than 200 scientists, asking, “If you could change one thing about how science works today, what would it be and why?” One of the clear themes in the responses: The institutions of science need to get better at rewarding failure. One young scientist told us, “I feel torn between asking questions that I know will lead to statistical significance and asking questions that matter.” The...

Identity politics is bullshit Identität ist alles. Ich. Meine Werte und meine Rechte. Das, was (zu) mir gehört. Was ich bin oder sein will. Wovon ich überzeugt bin, weil ich es einfach weiß. Wofür ich anerkannt und entschädigt werden muss. Identität ist eine riesige Sprechblase, die immer größer wird, je mehr Leute sich am Spiel beteiligen: Identität ist Heimat ist Hautfarbe ist Geschlecht ist sexuelle Orientierung ist Kultur ist Herkunft ist Familie ist...

Barfuß Am Klavier (personal) [embedded content] Yours truly. Café Einstein, Berlin 1988. Photo by Bengt Nilsson.