Lars P. Syll

Interview mit Stephanie Kelton Kelton: Die Vorstellung, dass Staaten nur eine begrenzte Menge an Geld zur Verfügung hätten, kommt aus einer Zeit, in der die Währung in den meisten Ländern in der einen oder anderen Form an Edelmetalle wie Gold oder Silber gekoppelt war. Heute ist das nicht mehr so. Geld wird einfach gedruckt – genauer gesagt: im Computer erzeugt. Es lässt sich beliebig vermehren. ZEIT: Das klingt jetzt so, als würden Sie einem Kind sagen:...

All of these examples exhibit the confusion that often accompanies the drawing of causal conclusions from observational data. The likelihood of such confusion is not diminished by increasing the amount of data, although the publicity given to ‘big data’ would have us believe so. Obviously the flawed causal connection between drowning and eating ice cream does not diminish if we increase the number of cases from a few dozen to a few million. The amateur carpenter’s complaint...

When no formal theory is available, as is often the case, then the analyst needs to justify statistical specifications by showing that they fit the data. That means more than just “running things.” It means careful graphical and crosstabular analysis … When I present this argument … one or more scholars say, “But shouldn’t I control for every-thing I can? If not, aren’t my regression coefficients biased due to excluded variables?” But this argument is not as persuasive as...

Econometrics and the challenge of regression specification Most work in econometrics and regression analysis is — still — made on the assumption that the researcher has a theoretical model that is ‘true.’ Based on this belief of having a correct specification for an econometric model or running a regression, one proceeds as if the only problem remaining to solve have to do with measurement and observation. When things sound too good to be true, they usually...

Worst of all, when we feel pumped up with our progress, a tectonic shift can occur, like the Panic of 2008, making it seem as though our long journey has left us disappointingly close to the State of Complete Ignorance whence we began … It often takes years down the Path, but sooner or later, someone articulates the concerns that gnaw away in each of us and asks if the Assumptions are valid … It would be much healthier for all of us if we could accept our fate, recognize...

Comment apprendre les langues .[embedded content]

. [embedded content] Bille August’s and Ingmar Bergman’s masterpiece. With breathtakingly beautiful music by Stefan Nilsson    And it breaks my heart every time I watch it.

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NAIRU — closer to religion than science Once we see how weak the foundations for the natural rate of unemployment are, other arguments for pursuing rates of unemployment economists once thought impossible become more clear. Wages can increase at the expense of corporate profits without causing inflation … The harder we push on improving output and employment, the more we learn how much we can achieve on those two fronts. That hopeful idea is the polar...

Mainstream economics finally made it … Wooh! So this is reality!