Lars P. Syll

Reexamining the economic costs of debt In recent months a new approach to national government budgets, deficits, and debts—Modern Money Theory (MMT)—has been the subject of discussion and controversy. A great deal of misunderstanding of its main tenets has led to declarations by many policymakers (including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzō Abe) that it is crazy and even dangerous. Supposedly, it calls on central banks...

Tobin tax — could it work? Eigentlich müsste es die Finanztransaktionssteuer – zumindest in Europa – längst geben: Das EU-Parlament stimmte zweimal für eine solche Steuer, und in Umfragen wünscht sie sich eine Mehrheit der Befragten. Die erste Idee dazu hatte John Maynard Keynes im Jahr 1936; populär machte sie in den Siebzigerjahren der Nobelpreisträger James Tobin und in den Neunzigerjahren das Bündnis Attac. Nach der Finanzkrise galt die Steuer im...

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Econometrics — fictions of extremely limited value It is often said that the error term in a regression equation represents the effect of the variables that were omitted from the equation. This is unsatisfactory … There is no easy way out of the difficulty. The conventional interpretation for error terms needs to be reconsidered. At a minimum, something like this would need to be said: The error term represents the combined effect of the omitted variables,...

The origins of MMT Many mainstream economists seem to think the idea behind Modern Monetary Theory is new and originates from economic cranks. New? Cranks? How about reading one of the great founders of neoclassical economics – Knut Wicksell. This is what Wicksell wrote in 1898 on ‘pure credit systems’ in Interest and Prices (Geldzins und Güterpreise), 1936 (1898), p. 68f: It is possible to go even further. There is no real need for any money at all if a...

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Economists — a perniciously overconfident tribe We economists trudge relentlessly toward Asymptopia, where data are unlimited and estimates are consistent, where the laws of large numbers apply perfectly and where the full intricacies of the economy are completely revealed … Worst of all, when we feel pumped up with our progress, a tectonic shift can occur, like the Panic of 2008, making it seem as though our long journey has left us disappointingly close...

‘Nobel prize’ winning plumbers There is no reason to believe, as the political economy view would have it, that politics always trumps policies. We can now go one step further and invert the hierarchy between policies and politics … The focus on the broad INSTITUTIONS as a necessary and sufficient condition for anything good to happen is somewhat misplaced … There is considerable slack to improve institutions and policy at the margin … These changes will...