Lars P. Syll

August 21, 1968 — a date which will live in infamy  [embedded content]   Advertisements

Donald Rubin on randomization and observational studies  [embedded content] Advertisements

Unfortunately, nothing is more dangerous than dogmas donned with scientific feathers. The current crisis might offer an excellent occasion for a paradigm change, previously called for by prominent economists like John Maynard Keynes, Alan Kirman and Steve Keen. They have forcefully highlighted the shortcomings and contradictions of the classical economictheory, but progress has been slow. The task looks so formidable that some economists argue that it is better to stick with...

Steven Pinker — a cherry-picking​ Panglossian  [embedded content] Advertisements

Why most published research findings are false Instead of chasing statistical significance, we should improve our understanding of the range of R values — the pre-study odds — where research efforts operate. Before running an experiment, investigators should consider what they believe the chances are that they are testing a true rather than a non-true relationship. Speculated high R values may sometimes then be ascertained … Large studies with minimal bias...

The rational expectations hoax A lot of mainstream economists still stick with ‘rational expectations’ since they think it has not yet been disconfirmed. They are, of course, entitled to have whatever views they like — after all, it is, to say the least, difficult to empirically disconfirm the non-existence of Gods … But for the rest of us, let’s see how rational expectations really fare​ as an empirical assumption. Empirical efforts at testing the...

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“I never learned maths, so I had to think” Professors may find themselves ill-prepared for the macro classroom. To become academics they had to answer erudite questions posed by more senior members of the discipline. To become good teachers of introductory macro, they have to give clear answers to muddled students. That requires an intuitive feel for the subject. It is not enough to crank through the equations. Indeed, Mr Rowe attributes part of his...

Touring again. Regular blogging to be resumed during the weekend. Advertisements

Easterlin’s paradox or why economic growth does not make us happier In Easterlin’s (1974) seminal paper, he finds that within any one country, in cross sectional studies, there was a strong correlation between income and happiness. One would easily conclude that money can buy happiness. However, looking at a cross section of countries, one comes to a different conclusion … For 10 of the 14 countries surveyed, the happiness ranking is about the same, even...