Lars P. Syll

Economics — confusing mathematical masturbation with intercourse between research and reality There’s no question that mainstream academic macroeconomics failed pretty spectacularly in 2008 … Many among the heterodox would have us believe that their paradigm worked perfectly well in 2008 and after … This is dramatically overselling the product. First, heterodox models didn’t “predict” the crisis in the sense of an actual quantitative forecast. This is...

Hur står det till med ekonomerna? Seminarium: Hur står det till med ekonomerna?De bommade finanskrisen. De skrev ut recept som förvärrade Greklandskrisen. De utgår från en människa som inte finns, och matematiska modeller som har väldigt lite med verkligheten att göra. Och de får bra betalt för jobbet. I nya numret av tidskriften Fronesis skärskådas den dominerande nationalekonomin, en vetenskap som har enorma anspråk, men som ständigt kommer till korta....

Dynamic programming — an introductory introduction  [embedded content] Advertisements

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As yours truly argued in a post the other day, NAIRU does not hold water simply because it hasn’t existed for the last 50 years. But still  today ‘New Keynesian’ (a monstrous misnomer) macroeconomists use it — and its cousin the Phillips curve — as a fundamental building block in their models. Why? Because without it ‘New Keynesians’ have to give up their (again and again empirically falsified) neoclassical view of the long-run neutrality of money and the simplistic idea of...

A critical realist perspective on evidence-based policies  [embedded content] Advertisements

Never seek to tell thy love (personal)  [embedded content] [h/t Eric Schüldt] Advertisements

In his book Why Minsky Matters L. Randall Wray tries to explain in what way Hyman Minsky’s thoughts offer a radical challenge to mainstream economic theory. Although there were a handful of economists who had warned as early as 2000 about the possibility of a crisis, Minsky’s warnings actually began a half century earlier—with publications in 1957 that set out his vision of financial instability. Over the next forty years, he refined and continually updated the theory. It is...

Robert Lucas — an example of macroeconomic quackery In an interview a couple of years ago, Robert Lucas said he now believes that “the evidence on postwar recessions … overwhelmingly supports the dominant importance of real shocks.” So, according to Lucas, changes in tastes and technologies should be able to explain, e.g., the main fluctuations in unemployment that we have seen during the last seven decades. Let’s look at the facts and see if there is any...

To-day, in many parts of the world, it is the serious embarrassment of the banks which is the cause of our gravest concern … [The banks] stand between the real borrower and the real lender. They have given their guarantee to the real lender; and this guarantee is only good if the money value of the asset belonging to the real borrower is worth the money which has been advanced on it. It is for this reason that a decline in money values so severe as that which we are now...