Mike Norman Economics

“The test of science is its ability to predict”— Richard Feynman Is economics "cargo cult science" (Richard Feynman)? Of course, as I point out in my forthcoming book Quantum Economics, economics should not be compared directly with weather forecasting. For one thing, the fact that economists’ predictions and models affect the economy (the financial crisis of 2008 for example was in part caused by faulty economic risk models) means that their responsibility is more like that of engineers or...

At the start of April President Vladimir Putin believed he could postpone Russia’s strategic and battlefield responses to the state of war which the US is escalating. He was to be disappointed. On April 6, the US Treasury announced it is putting the state aluminium monopoly United Company Rusal out of business, not only in the US but worldwide. Not since July 26, 1941, when President Franklin Roosevelt froze Japanese assets in the US and prohibited all US trade with Japan, especially...

This is what an ass-kicking looks like... sheesh these guys killed it here: $SPX Q1’18 opertating EPS estimate up 10.0% YTD, as EPS setting record; 2018 est +8.1% YTD, 2019 +8.0%; Oper margin record high at 11.66% (20YrAvg8.08%); Sales strong +9.4%Y/Y, second (-2.8%) only to record Q4 2017 (holiday); file under ‘Additional info” https://t.co/hWKNiES12t — Howard Silverblatt (@hsilverb) April 27, 2018 More on share buybacks way up:$SPX Q1’18 buybacks (29% reported) up 72% over Q4’17 & up...

This GDP projection from the Atlanta Fed has come way down for the 1Q from when it was first published.  IIRC they were a bit above 4% while we just reported a 2.3%.You can't end 4Q with a change in tax POLICY that forces a $40B (4%) markdown in capital at the depositories and still expect things to carry on iaw the 4Q growth trend sorry.That tax bill simply was not well thought out... I hope this short term effect of the change in policy effecting $40B of certain financial asset values is...

Infographic.Real-World Economics Review BlogOxfam report on the rich-poor divide Editor

John Carney makes interesting points pro and con. Most of the cons are about politicization of the program since the JG as it is being presented and supported is clearly a Democratic program and "leftist" idea. He points out that this needn't be so. A value-neutral JG program can also be designed to appeal cross the political spectrum. JG supporters should listen to this. A JG is really a populist program that favors people, and firms will oppose it. For, as Carney points out, employers...

Now both Comey and Clapper caught out for leading classified information of a political nature.Zero HedgeClapper Busted Leaking Dossier Details To CNN's Jake Tapper, Lying To Congress About It Tyler Durden

Nice précis of MMT.Mount Desert Islander — Letters to the EditorGovernment debt and spending John Buell

Abstract Using post-electoral surveys from France, Britain and the US, this paper documents a striking long-run evolution in the structure of political cleavages. In the 1950s-1960s, the vote for left-wing (socialist-labour-democratic) parties was associated with lower education and lower income voters. It has gradually become associated with higher education voters, giving rise to a “multiple-elite” party system in the 2000s-2010s: high-education elites now vote for the “left”, while...

Most mainstream economists seem to think the idea behind Modern Monetary Theory is something new that some wild heterodox economic cranks have come up with. New? Cranks? How about reading one of the great founders of neoclassical economics — Knut Wicksell. This is what Wicksell wrote in 1898 on ‘pure credit systems’ in Interest and Prices (Geldzins und Güterpreise): Lars P. Syll’s BlogMMT — the Wicksell connectionLars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University