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Mike Norman Economics

Jason Smith — Three sigma deviation in the 10-year rate

Now you might wonder how raising interest rates to only about 2% could trigger a recession today in the same way raising interest rates to 14% did in the 80s. I admit I don't have a good answer to this except to say increasing labor force participation in the 80s probably provided a sufficient tailwind that Fed had to do do much more.In any case, this makes for an excellent test of the model. Interest rates should come back down in the near term (about 6 months). A possible mechanism to...

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Jason Smith — Letter to Dirk Bezemer

It appears I have to attempt to contact Dirk Bezemer directly for people to take my claims seriously that Bezemer has misquoted and fabricated quotes in his papers claiming that some economists using "accounting" or "flow of funds" models were able to predict the global financial crisis and widespread recession. I believe this kind of controversy is best to keep in the open instead of being conducted through private email. The point of publication is in part to put academics and researchers...

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Branko Milanovic — The influence of Karl Marx—a counterfactual

The two hundredth anniversary of Karl Marx’s birth is giving rise to many conferences dedicated to numerous (and God knows there were many) aspects of Marx’s work and life. (I am going to one such conference in Haifa.) Add to it an even greater number of reviews of his work and influence (Peter Singer just published one a couple of days ago), new books on his life, a movie on Young Marx and the list goes on.I will also look here at Marx’s intellectual influence—but from a very different...

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Duncan Green — The Economist comes out in support of Universal Health Care – here are the best bits

This week’s Economist magazine leads on the case for Universal Health Care, worldwide. That’s a big deal – the Economist is very influential, can’t possibly be accused of being a leftie spendthrift, and the case it makes is powerful. A couple of non Economist readers asked me for a crib sheet of the 10 page report, so here are some of the excerpts that caught my eye: Universal health care on the table, a raging debate over basic income or job guarantee — the frame is shifting rapidly....

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Stephen F. Cohen — America’s Collusion With Neo-Nazis

Neo-fascists play an important official or tolerated role in US-backed Ukraine. John McCain and Joe Biden were at the center of it. While John McCain was out front on it, it happened on President Obama's watch and Joe Biden was tasked with Ukraine. It gets murkier. While Joe Biden was US VP and John Kerry Secretary of State, Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, became a board member of Burisma, Ukraine’s largest gas company, along with Devon Archer. Devon Archer, Hunter Biden John Kerry’s stepson,...

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Bill Mitchell — Education – a faux crisis, an erroneous ‘solution’ and capital wins again

One of the ways in which the neoliberal era has entrenched itself and, in this case, will perpetuate its negative legacy for years to come is to infiltrate the educational system. This has occurred in various ways over the decades as the corporate sector has sought to have more influence over what is taught and researched in universities. The benefits of this influence to capital are obvious. They create a stream of compliant recruits who have learned to jump through hoops to get delayed...

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