Mike Norman Economics

The Bank of England hiked today, and the Fed’s dot plot yesterday indicated that rate hikes are expected to hit in 2022. This is a quite different script than the last cycle, although it remains to be seen how many hikes happen before they stall out....Bond EconomicsCentral Bank HawkishnessBrian Romanchuk

Ditching gross domestic product as the main gauge of prosperity was always impossible in the absence of broad agreement about what the alternative might be. But as economists and statisticians develop wealth and well-being approaches to measuring economic success, the direction of change is clear.…Project SyndicateGDP's Days Are NumberedDiane Coyle | Professor of Public Policy at the University of...

MericsChina is securing battery metals on the global stageJ.Hellerhttps://merics.org/en/tracker/china-securing-battery-metals-global-stage

Moron check.Tax Research UKThe five laws of stupidityRichard Murphy | Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London; Director of Tax Research UK; non-executive director of Cambridge Econometrics, and a member of the Progressive Economy Forumhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect  See alsoDunning and Kruger describe a common cognitive bias and make quantitative assertions that rest on statistical arguments. But their findings are...

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest labour force data today (December 16, 2021) – Labour Force, Australia – for November 2021. With most states now abandoning most Covid restrictions just as the new variant arrives, which evades the vaccine coverage and infection numbers soar to record levels (go figure), the labour market certainly rebounded emphatically. Employment growth was very strong and resulted in sharp falls in unemployment and underemployment. Participation also...

Rate hikes will drive inflation higher.

Ok, there is is. They totally get that the US and UK aided by the rest of Five Eyes (Canada, Australia, and NZ) are actively trying to take them down.The Vineyard of the SakerRussia and China are “more than allies”The Sakerhttp://thesaker.is/russia-and-china-are-more-than-allies/TASSRussia and China act like a bloc as relations with United States worsen - New York Timeshttps://tass.com/world/1376281

 One factor in the economics community hanging together on the normal paradigm is the assumption that economics is a natural science like physics rather than a life science or a social science?Another factor may be group think?There may be many other factors, too, but these come to mind.Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ScienceEconomics as a communityAndrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia...

It’s Wednesday and I load up other things to do on this day and thus write less here. I also am in the process of moving offices at the University – and after some 18 years in different locations, I am now returning to the Social Sciences Building where I first had an office when I came to the University from Adelaide. Which feels sort of okay, given by opposition to economics being treated as a business discipline. But thanks to a deal I made with the University in 2007, my research centre...

 I would assess that it is now beyond the tipping point. Russia and China are all but declared allies• at this juncture. In addition to a formal alliance and as a concomitant, the nightmare scenario for the US and allies is that Russia and China pool military technology and manufacturing capabilities. In addition, Russia has the natural resources, especially energy, that China needs and is otherwise potentially deprived of by the US Navy disrupting its maritime trade. India...