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Get ready for deflation.

Summary:
Biggest business inventory increase in history in Q4 just as fiscal is pulling the rug out from under the economy. And OPEC+ is about to raise output. Recipe for broadly falling prices. (Oh yeah, and Fed raising rates.)

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Biggest business inventory increase in history in Q4 just as fiscal is pulling the rug out from under the economy. And OPEC+ is about to raise output. Recipe for broadly falling prices. (Oh yeah, and Fed raising rates.)
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

30 comments

  1. The duopoly wants it to be in this Mike duopoly wants a bad economy it keeps the rotating villain narrative going. It keeps the status quo in place

  2. Sometimes saying "I'm at a loss for words" is saying a lot!

  3. Are you still long TSLA? The drop after record earnings is puzzling.

  4. Finance & Economics

    Been ready!

  5. mike has all the right calls im great for inflation or deflation

  6. Finance & Economics

    It's the kind of House of Cards that can be toppled by the slightest of distrubances.

    • Mike Norman MMT Economics

      By the same token it can also be supported with the proper fiscal, but unfortunately the politics will not let that happen right now.

    • @Mike Norman MMT Economics I think Powell knows what he's doing but I suspect Democrats do not or they would be screaming bloody murder about now. Powell was the biggest dove….until he got reconfirmed by Biden, now he's a trojan horse for Republicans. Just mho

  7. Phew, now I gotta learn a new thing …. But I love stocks, Mike

  8. So, we should see long term treasury yields roll over?

  9. All the fed had to do was very little. Instead they just gas it 💯 like the world is ending and then hit the break. Why in the world can they just have normal sustained growth without bubbles…

  10. how do we sell when it’s been down every day for weeks

  11. i’m screwed

  12. Damn! My basement is almost full of toilet paper and peanut butter. I better start unloading them in a garage sale before the supermarket is flooded with oversupply. I'm gonna take a beating and my wife is gonna kill me. She told me to stick with penny stocks. lol

  13. Cathie Wood has also been talking about inventory easing mike.

    • Mike Norman MMT Economics

      Funny. I was just emailing a friend today saying ARKK could see a major turnaround. It could be an excellent contrarian play. She will end up being right IMO.

  14. Mike so are you selling gold?

    • Mike Norman MMT Economics

      I am out. Yes. Maybe back in when the Fed raises rates. We'll see. Definitely back in when automatic stabilizers kick in.

    • @Mike Norman MMT Economics I'm not a trader but I'll sell a bit into a bouce, either way there will be a place to put dry powder in the coming months. Thanks

  15. Mike, I know you do not answer comments often…but can you just give me a yes or no? Have you or do you ever listen to Jeff Snider?

  16. Could banks become illiquid because of this?

    • Mike Norman MMT Economics

      No. They have plenty of capital, but they may have to take charges against loans. However, on that note I am really reaching at this point. We have to see how the economy evolves.

  17. Tarot Reading 4 Love

    We need someone like you for president….

  18. I guess home prices will come down. Thanks mike

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