Mike Norman Economics

WASHINGTON (AP) — America faces the “darkest winter in modern history” unless leaders act decisively to prevent a rebound of the coronavirus, says a government whistleblower who alleges he was ousted from his job for warning the Trump administration to prepare for the pandemic. Immunologist Dr. Rick Bright makes his sobering prediction in testimony prepared for his appearance Thursday before the House Energy and Commerce Committee.Whistleblower: US could face virus rebound 'darkest winter'...

Another IFR datapoint: with serology testing estimating that 5% of Spains population was exposed, 27,104 deaths, and a population of 46.9 million gives an infection fatality rate of ~1.2%.Spanish antibody study points to 5% of population affected by coronavirusBut the fatality rate could be even higher.Hidden figures: Spain's official COVID-19 numbers raise questions Hidden figures: Spain's official COVID-19 numbers raise questions

I'm surprised at this, Sweden is considered a very social democratic country, but it looks like big business hijacked its public health policy. Foreign Affairs just published an article that attempts to depict the failed Swedish approach to Covid-19 as not just a success, but even the way of the future. I suppose if you regard failed state in the making like the US as a harbinger, you could view this description as accurate. But nations that aspire to better like South Korea, New Zealand,...

How New Zealand responded to Covid-19 compared to the UK. New Zealand said it was paramount to save lives. [embedded content]

Wuhan has ordered fresh Covid-19 tests for all 14 million residents after six new infections were reported over the weekendWuhan orders fresh coronavirus tests for all residents as new cluster fans fears of second wave

Frank Li presents an alternative picture.econintesect.comCovid-19: How Has China Been Dealing with It?Frank Li | Chinese ex-pat, Founder and President of W.E.I. (West-East International), a Chicago-based import & export company, B.E. from Zhejiang University (China) in 1982, M.E. from the University of Tokyo in 1985, and Ph.D. from Vanderbilt University in 1988, all in Electrical Engineering

While many advanced economies increase government spending to unprecedented levels to mitigate the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, most developing countries have struggled to marshal even relatively small rescue packages. These differences reflect a systemic flaw in the global economy.... The Post-Colonial Era is really the neocolonial era.Project SyndicateMessages from “Fiscal Space” Jayati Ghosh | Professor of Economics at the Centre for Economic Studies and Planning, School of...

And all this needs to be integrated into a systems approach. This is very difficult since solutions must be implemented in an ideologically diverse and oppositional political environment in which the general level of education is not high. Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ScienceHere’s what academic social, behavioral, and economic scientists should be working on right now.Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics...

Disaster capitalism is being tried, and the worst case is now the likely case. But there is a scale beyond which disaster capitalism cannot go. At a certain point, the carnage becomes too great to neglect, impossible to avoid and lethal to overlook. At a certain point, ordinary people will stand up and refuse to be bullied any more. That point has not quite arrived; we are still in the mind-set of “getting back to normal,” even as the pandemic continues. The contradiction between...

Data is useless unless it’s used. Everything above is pointless unless governments actually want to use all this data to make decisions. And the last few years have been, ahem, challenging ones for those who think big decisions are best made using good evidence.So better data after COVID-19 isn’t about any one thing. It’s a slow incremental process of creating a system, based on good law and respect for rights, fully embedded into political cultures and expectations, attuned to market...